Bitcoin Technical Overview
Yesterday, Bitcoin corrected nearly 4%, breaking below the Ichimoku TBO Cloud for the first time since April as daily volume surged past its moving average. The daily RSI fell to 24.62, triggering an RSI Reset but underscoring persistent bearish pressure.
On the four-hour chart, a bullish divergence emerges with price printing lower lows while RSI records higher lows. Simultaneously, a daily bull flag has formed between the August 1 and August 14 pivots, offering an expected bullish outcome but exposing the risk of a retest toward $101,000 in early October if the lower trendline is challenged.
Market Cycle Outlook and Risk Management
Historical data from the Crypto Historical Monthly Performance indicates Bitcoin’s median monthly close since 2011 is down approximately 5%, aligning with a possible drop to $101,000. Seasonality suggests October through December can be bullish, yet a break below $100,000 would invalidate the current bull thesis and likely signal a broader decline.
With no definitive on-chain “top signals” appearing and the market displaying whipsaw volatility, I anticipate a cycle peak in mid-November followed by a bear market by mid-December. Altcoins may face declines of 90–99%, so investors should reassess portfolios and prioritize capital preservation.
Ethereum and Dominance Metrics
Ethereum’s daily RSI hit a new local low at 14.10, a depth last seen in August 2024, while on-chart TBT Bearish Divergences at multiple 2024–2025 peaks cast doubt on ETH regaining $5,000 ahead of the projected market top.
Combined stablecoin dominance spiked to an RSI of 82.76, near its long-term resistance at 7.5%. Previous RSI peaks preceded further stablecoin inflows, which would amplify selling pressure on crypto. Conversely, Bitcoin dominance is consolidating bullishly, eyeing 60.54% on the weekly fast line before a projected fall toward 40%, offering a temporary lift to altcoin performance thereafter.
Market Breadth and Total Market Signals
The TOTALES daily chart recorded an RSI Reset, with three of the last four resets marking strong market lows and subsequent broad recoveries. However, a second weekly TBT Bearish Divergence warns of potential resistance and a retracement.
The OTHERS index also displays two daily RSI Resets that historically provided solid re-entry points. Yet two recent TBO Close Longs on OTHERS/BTC reinforce Bitcoin’s near-term outperformance, suggesting caution before expecting sustained altcoin rallies.
Traditional Finance Indicators
The US Dollar Index retested its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.555, rebuffing expectations of a post-Fed rate cut USD decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gapped down, printing a TBT Bearish Divergence but remaining above its TBO Cloud.
In China, the Shanghai Composite formed a third TBT Bearish Divergence cluster—often followed by prolonged consolidation or 20% drawdowns. Gold has rallied yet shows bearish RSI divergence, indicating a potential pullback amid global recession concerns.
Altcoin Technical Snapshots
XRP printed a TBO Open Short after a 6% decline, while BNB closed within its daily TBO Cloud with a TBT Bearish Divergence. SOL and HYPE approach RSI Reset levels near 20, potentially offering corrective bounces, whereas AVAX and MNT bear ongoing negative divergence.
SHIB and CRO may be completing RSI Resets at key support zones. PUMP lost its 0.786 Fibonacci support level, and ASTER continues its descent toward the 0.618 retracement. These mixed signals underscore heightened downside risk across the altcoin market.
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