Strengths
- The best performing precious metal this week was platinum, up 11.77%. New research from Chinese scientists shows how near-total atom utilization of platinum can boost efficiency and cut costs, highlighting its growing role in sustainable chemical production.
- The disconnect between gold and real yields reveals a growing investor desire for safety, highlighting a structural shift toward bullion as confidence in sovereign bond markets collapses. The traditional inverse relationship between gold prices and the inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yield (a real yield proxy) broke down in 2022 amid central bank bullion purchases. Widening fiscal turmoil worldwide, along with geopolitical and trade tensions, has emboldened retail investors and hedge funds to chase the record-setting precious metal rally, according to Bloomberg.
- Mali has approved seven agreements granting the state increased revenue from international and local mining companies in the military government’s latest effort to boost income from the sector. The Council of Ministers approved the exploitation and exploration agreements, securing Mali a guaranteed, non-reducible stake in mining projects with priority access to dividends, reports Reuters.
Weaknesses
- The worst-performing precious metal for the week was gold, still up 2.67%. Gold’s strength is highlighted by its sixth consecutive weekly gain, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, steady inflows into bullion-backed ETFs, and a risk-off tone in global markets. With prices up 43% this year and support from central bank buying alongside Fed rate cuts, the metal remains on track to extend its rally.
- The World Gold Council notes that gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) declined again month-over-month in August, as weak investment demand masked a rebound in jewelry sales. Amid improving risk appetite among local investors, Chinese gold ETFs saw further outflows in August, and gold futures trading volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also fell due to low price volatility throughout most of the month.
- ARIS confirmed a collapse in the main shaft access of the La Reliquia Mine, a third-party operation within ARIS’s Segovia title but outside its infrastructure. Twenty-three workers were underground at the time, including five ARIS employees. ARIS successfully rescued all workers after two days underground.
Opportunities
- Barrick Mining Corp. shares are rallying the most in five years on hopes that its U.S. Fourmile project in Nevada will become a major gold mine. A preliminary assessment suggests up to 750,000 ounces of annual production, leading analysts to raise price targets, according to Bloomberg.
- Angola’s state-owned diamond company Endiama has offered to buy a minority stake in De Beers to help keep the company independent, following Botswana’s move to seek control. Angola’s Ministry of Mineral Resources said the bid is fully financed and does not seek majority ownership.
- RBC notes gold producers have generated strong free cash flow at current spot prices. While M&A has focused on producers recently, developers may be next as mid-cap producers use cash for growth via acquisitions. Rising prices and share gains could spark a new wave of deals.
Threats
- Noting that gold’s surge began around the time the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, Bank of America suggests that a resolution to this conflict, and other major geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-China trade dispute, could reduce safe-haven demand. Another potentially bearish factor for gold is a bubble-driven rally in the U.S. dollar, which could draw capital into the U.S., trigger a bond sell-off, and push real interest rates higher.
- Parabolic price changes are unsustainable, notes Bloomberg. Since 1980, when gold’s trailing one-month gain has been 10% or more, the average one-week forward return has been -0.45%, with a one-month decline of -1.13%. Since 2020, the forward performance has been even worse, with a one-week change of -1.12% and a one-month drop of -3.91%. A near-term pullback in gold could be likely.
- Vault released its FY2026 production and cost guidance following contract changes. Its production forecast of 332,000–360,000 ounces was slightly below consensus expectations of 365,000 ounces, about 5% lower at the midpoint. While FY2026 gold production guidance is down 9% year-over-year at the midpoint, earnings are expected to rise 35% due to expiring hedges and a higher gold price, according to RBC.
