Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin closed higher again, maintaining its bull flag formation as it approaches immediate resistance at $115,700. The open CME gap at $110,990 remains unfilled, supporting upside momentum. Notably, BTC closed above the daily TBO Cloud, with volume surpassing its 20-day moving average and on-balance volume edging above its own moving average. A classic bull flag breakout often tests the former resistance—commonly referred to as a “bump and run”—before resuming an upward trajectory toward $120,000.
Ethereum and Stablecoin Dominance Dynamics
Ethereum remains in a bearish consolidation within the daily TBO Cloud, yet to challenge the fast line, with subdued volume and on-balance volume readings. In contrast, combined stablecoin dominance has declined to 6.40%, still held above the daily TBO Cloud. A drop below 6.17% would confirm a rotation into Bitcoin and select altcoins, a move anticipated once Bitcoin breaks the $115,700 level and advances toward $120,000.
Dominance Metrics and Altcoin Season
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is consolidating bullishly inside the daily TBO Cloud, with a projected weekly push to the fast line and a peak near 61% as Bitcoin approaches new highs. Following this apex—likely in mid-November—dominance should recede, marking the onset of a targeted altcoin season lasting into mid-December. Ethereum dominance (ETH.D) and Solana dominance (SOL.D) exhibit bearish setups, while “Others” dominance (OTHERS.D) has printed its third daily TBO Close Long, underscoring Bitcoin’s current dominance over most altcoins.
Traditional Finance and Macro Indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) registered a second weekly TBT bullish divergence, historically signaling key pivot lows since 2017. A rising DXY typically pressures equities; with two remaining Federal Reserve meetings expected to deliver rate cuts, the question remains whether the stimulus is sufficient amid rising unemployment and falling consumer spending. Should the US stock market enter a downturn in early 2025, cryptocurrency markets could face significant headwinds. Meanwhile, major indices (S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ 100) continue to climb, warranting vigilance as VIX remains below the 22.00 worry threshold. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng have printed bearish divergences, adding to global risk concerns.
Precious Metals Near New Highs
With macro warning indicators flashing, gold has surged to fresh daily all-time highs. Silver is likewise approaching its 2011 record near $50. These precious metals rallies reflect broader risk aversion and may influence traditional and digital asset allocations.
Altcoin Tactical Picks
Bitcoin is forecast to reach $124,000 in October, with a potential blow-off top near $150,000 in November. Throughout this advance, most altcoins are expected to consolidate until Bitcoin dominance peaks. Optimal opportunities lie in pullbacks on previously strong charts: Binance Coin (BNB), Avalanche (AVAX), Immutable (IMX), Mantle (MNT), Quant (QNT), Flare (FLR), Grass (GRASS), Aster (ASTER), and XPLA (XPL). Broad entries should await the rotation following BTC.D’s peak, at which point oversold altcoins will present robust setups.
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