Strengths
- The best-performing precious metal this week was gold, up 2.60%. Gold and silver are rising amid the U.S. government shutdown. Sustained gains will depend on increased investment in bullion-backed ETFs, which grew by 111 tons (3.8%) last month, according to Bloomberg.
- Zijin Gold’s IPO retail portion was 240x oversubscribed, and the stock closed up 51.4% in gray-market trading, according to J.P. Morgan. While strong demand was expected after EMAS’s raise last week, the key debate now is how to position around parent company Zijin Mining (2899 HK), which is up 127% YTD.
Westgold Resources expects annual output to rise to over 470,000 ounces by FY28, from 326,000 in FY25, driven by higher-grade ore and better mine feed. With 80% of future supply from current reserves and a fully funded balance sheet, the company anticipates margin improvements despite all-in sustaining costs near A$2,500/oz.
Weaknesses
- The worst-performing precious metal this week was palladium, down 1.65%. The U.S. Department of Commerce delayed its preliminary decision in the countervailing duty probe on Russian palladium imports to December 29, 2025, citing complex subsidy issues raised by Stillwater Mining and the United Steelworkers Union. The delay slows U.S. trade action aimed at countering Russia’s subsidized supply, which has long supported palladium’s price premium.
- St. Barbara Gold has yet to receive a proposal for its Atlantic assets that offers shareholders adequate participation in the potential value of the 15-Mile Processing Hub Project.
- Centerra management believes its assets are undervalued by the market due to misunderstandings around its molybdenum strategy and past operational challenges, particularly at Mt. Milligan.
Opportunities
- Bank of America believes silver’s recent outperformance reflects a catch-up trade to gold. In extended gold bull markets, silver typically lags early but later outperforms, often by 1.5–2.0x relative to gold.
- Newmont announced that CEO Tom Palmer will retire on December 31, 2025. Natascha Viljoen, currently President and COO, will succeed him as President and CEO on January 1, 2026, and join the Board. Viljoen, who joined Newmont in 2023, brings over 30 years of global mining experience, including as former CEO of Anglo American Platinum, according to Canaccord.
- The gold-to-silver ratio has declined to 81.6x from its April 2025 peak of 104.7x (a 22% drop), though it remains above the historical average of 70x. Applied to current gold prices, the average implies a silver price of $54/oz, with a ±1.5 standard deviation range of $42–$74/oz, according to Canaccord.
Threats
- Barrick Gold announced the immediate departure of CEO Mark Bristow. Mark Hill, with the company since 2006 and previously overseeing Latin America and Asia Pacific, has been appointed Interim President, CEO, and Group COO. BMO believes this board-led decision may reflect frustration over Barrick’s underperformance relative to peers. Some speculate whether the board itself will face scrutiny for acting too late.
- CIBC notes that initial capital costs for Dundee Precious Metals’ Loma Larga project have risen from $316M (2021) to $593M, due to sector-wide inflation. However, a 35% increase in commodity price assumptions offsets the higher capex, supporting a solid 18.1% IRR. Permitting remains a potential hurdle.
- The unusually smooth gold rally may signal market vulnerability. Historically, gold climbs come with sharp pullbacks—2023 saw five corrections of 6–10%. Bloomberg notes the lack of recent volatility may reflect investor conviction in further upside, but it also limits healthy resets.
