Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Despite a narrow daily close within the TBO Cloud, Bitcoin has held its 4-hour TBO support and is showing a rising RSI, indicating growing momentum. Short-term volume on the daily chart has outperformed its moving average since the 5th, underscoring institutional participation.
Traders are watching for a classic bump-and-run breakout above overhead resistance. While no bearish signals have printed on the 4-hour yet, the emergence of bearish divergences or TBO Close Longs could occur if price challenges resistance again today.
Ethereum Positioning and Dominance Metrics
Ethereum recovered strongly from the 0.786 Fib level, retreating only to $3,900 on its latest pullback and already tagging its daily TBO Fast line—something Bitcoin has yet to achieve. ETH still requires roughly an 8% advance to breach near-term resistance.
In dominance metrics, ETH/BTC remains in bearish consolidation within the daily TBO Cloud but has recovered from Friday’s liquidation. Combined stablecoin dominance at 6.76% above the cloud suggests capital is sitting on the sidelines; we anticipate this figure will descend toward 5% over the next month, coinciding with a new Bitcoin all-time high.
Market Capitalization and Pair Reversals
The total market cap excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins is signaling a potential altcoin resurgence, with a fourth TBO Close Short emerging on the 4-hour chart. Likewise, OTHERS/BTC printed a second TBO Close Short, suggesting broader market cap may outperform Bitcoin in the near term.
On pair charts, SOL/ETH has printed three 4-hour TBO Close Shorts even after a bearish break below the daily cloud; a return into cloud territory and above resistance would confirm a shift in dominance toward SOL.
TradFi and Macroeconomic Overview
Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish pivot toward QE has buoyed S&P futures, DJI, and NDX, while the DXY remains in bullish consolidation inside its daily TBO Cloud despite a 4-hour TBO Close Long hinting at near-term weakness. The U.S.–China tariff skirmish has spooked NVDA, and Tesla’s daily chart registered a bearish divergence cluster, though the VIX’s drop below 20 and a rebound in the Nikkei suggest risk sentiment is stabilizing.
Commodities: Oil and Gold
WTI crude has broken down toward its daily TBO support, signaling potential volatility if a bounce does not materialize. In contrast, Gold continues its advance, now trading above $4,200, reinforcing its safe-haven demand amid macro uncertainty.
Altcoin Highlights
Among altcoins, BNB’s second daily bearish divergence contrasts with sustained volume inflows, while SOL registers a 4-hour TBO Close Short beneath resistance. TRX, XLM and AVAX display bullish divergences on the 4-hour timeframe, whereas AAVE, ALGO, CRV and LDO have printed recent TBO Close Shorts. TAO and PENGU show bearish RSI and volume signals, while KAS, SEI, INJ, PUMP, ZORA, ZEN and XPL exhibit various bullish reversal indicators.
Overall, altcoins are forming mixed setups, but a decisive Bitcoin breakout above resistance would likely catalyze a broader market advance.
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