CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:45 a.m. EDT 22 October 2025 $4,061.90 (Basis the December 2025 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,960
Initial Timeframe: 22 October 2025 to 7 November 2025
Stop Loss: $4,115
Gold prices have risen roughly $1,066 from their 19 August low to their high on 20 October. Since then, prices have fallen by almost $400. They may have another $100 or so to go.
Market volatility is likely to continue. Prices should be expected to whip higher and lower as financial market participants are battered by conflicting developments.
CPM still expects gold and silver prices to head higher. The various political and economic issues, that have supported gold prices this far, are not going to be resolved anytime soon and are more likely to worsen over the next several months. That said, the volatility should be expected to continue. Ultra-short-term investing, trading, and speculation will be treacherous as the world’s economic and political prospects pivot.
Gold and silver prices have risen and fallen in tandem with stocks, bonds, industrial commodities, and to some extent the U.S. dollar over the past few months. This has confounded some people who believe precious metals as alternative investments and safe havens only move in opposite directions to assets that benefit from a strong economic outlook. This of course has never been true; it’s just something simplistic to believe.
The reality is that oftentimes gold and silver rise and fall together with other assets. For one thing, as stocks and bond prices rise at high or even record levels, investors in these assets sometimes get nervous about an inevitable decline. Some even start to listen to the hype about an imminent bear market or stock market ‘collapse.’
U.S. equity indices presently are at record levels,
CPM’s analysis of recent and current market trends is that investors are awash in cash – more money in short-term cash instruments like CDs and U.S. Treasuries than ever before, and a larger percentage of their financial assets in cash as well. These investors continue to buy stocks, bonds, industrial commodities because economic trends have been sideways and not down – at least as of the second quarter. There are signs of gathering economic weakness: persistent inflation, weakening employment conditions, and other factors. But for now, or at least based on the most recent data, the U.S. and global economy are moving forward, and some companies are reporting better than expected corporate earnings.
At the same time, these investors see storm clouds on the horizon and are buying gold and silver. There also has been a flood of momentum trading piling into gold and silver.
All of which makes investors nervous and increases volatility.
The reality is that most likely the economy both in the United States and globally is headed for more trouble.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
