CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 2:35 p.m. EDT 23 October 2025 $4,158.90 (Basis the December 2025 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800 - $4,400
Initial Timeframe: 23 October 2025 to 27 October 2025
Stop Loss: Not Applicable
Gold prices continue to be extremely volatile and unsettled, along with many other assets.
Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected to release CPI data for September. It is expected to show continued inflationary pressures, which could be bullish for gold prices.
The U.S. finally said it was going to impose sanctions on some Russian oil producers. If effective these could hasten a ceasefire in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Perhaps more important was Sweden’s sale of up to 150 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. This adds to pressures on Russia for movement toward a ceasefire. More importantly, it adds to signals that European NATO members are willing and able to move forward in their defenses against Russia with or without U.S. participation, an outgrowth of the repeated vacillating of U.S. policy.
Technically gold rose roughly $1,050 from late August to this week, and then dropped $400 in two days. There is a measured move pattern that could suggest another $400 drop to around $3,800. The short-term upward trend line has been tested Wednesday and today. If that holds while U.S. CPI data comes in worse than expected gold prices could move back toward $4,400 or even higher.
Many short-term untraditional gold investors as well as longer term gold investors may not wish to hold long short-term positions into the weekend, given the wide range of highly uncertain factors, and could liquidate on Friday.
These factors suggest standing aside until Monday.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
