Bitcoin Price Action and Volume Analysis
Bitcoin closed above short-term overhead resistance yesterday, marking the first hurdle cleared after a week-long effort. Despite the 2.33% uptick, volume failed to exceed its yellow moving average, raising concerns over sustained momentum. On the 4-hour chart, BTC executed a classic bump-and-run pattern—breaking out and retesting resistance—but without a definitive surge in volume, it remains an “elderly shuffle” rather than a full-fledged run.
To confirm a bullish continuation, Bitcoin must reclaim Tuesday’s upper wick at $114,000 and extend toward $130,000 by month-end. Absent gapless volume expansion, trend strength may remain muted.
Ethereum’s Struggle and ETH/BTC Weakness
Ethereum remains beneath its short-term 4-hour support after testing and rejecting a previously lost level, underscoring bearish consolidation throughout October. The ETH/BTC pair is equally unimpressive, with volume and on-balance volume trending downward and RSI languishing below 40.
Since mid-September’s descent into the daily TBO Cloud, the pair has lacked bullish reversal signals; meaningful recovery hinges on ETH beginning to outperform BTC, for which there are currently no reliable indicators.
Stablecoin and Bitcoin Dominance Trends
Combined stablecoin dominance closed lower, with the 4-hour charts still awaiting the bearish reversal pattern of TBT bearish divergences paired with TBO close longs that have historically foreshadowed rallies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance is inching higher and is projected to peak near 61% before rotating toward other altcoin segments in late November.
Ethereum’s share (ETH.D) remains weak, while Solana dominance is beginning to trend upward, hinting at an eventual shift in market leadership once BTC.D tops out.
Solana Dominance and Altcoin Landscape
Solana dominance (SOL.D) surged above bull flag resistance, with the pole measurement from August 1 to mid-September suggesting a 43% extension to a 4.02% dominance target. Correspondingly, SOL/ETH printed a daily TBO close short signal and outperformed ETH by 4.82%, indicating SOL’s leadership among top protocols.
Across additional altcoins, BNB registered two daily TBO close shorts following news of CZ’s pardon, DOGE is testing its first resistance fan line, and HYPE’s 10% rally accompanied a TBT bullish divergence. Select tokens—such as LTC, TAO, ASTER, 2Z, and DASH—show potential springboard bounces or support tests, while others like SAROS and COAI display bearish divergence clusters warranting caution.
Total Market Cap Reversal Signals
The total crypto market cap (TOTALES.D) on the 4-hour chart exhibits TBT bullish divergences and TBO close shorts, mirroring prior pre-rally conditions. A decisive break above 93.30% resistance would signal a broad market pump likely coinciding with Bitcoin reaching toward $130,000. Conversely, a rejection would imply renewed bearish pressure.
On the daily chart, TOTAL3ESBTC also printed a TBT bullish divergence, suggesting a potential shift toward altcoin outperformance versus Bitcoin over the coming weeks, consistent with an expected end-of-month BTC rally.
Traditional Markets and Commodities Update
WTI crude oil rose over 8% in two days, printing a daily TBO close short after Western sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil. Gold extended its advance to 0.65%, holding above the daily TBO Cloud despite an RSI decline to 50; a drop into the cloud would herald bearish consolidation. Silver continues to trade sideways following Tuesday’s sell-off.
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