CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 3:55 p.m. EDT 27 October 2025 $4,003.80 (Basis the December 2025 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800 - $4,400
Initial Timeframe: 27 October 2025 to 31 October 2025
Stop Loss: Not Applicable
Last Thursday CPM issued a Stand Aside Gold Trade Recommendation, suggesting massive potential swings in gold prices between then and today in either or both directions. Gold was $4,158.90 at the time. It dropped below $4,000 today and is showing signs of heading toward the low end of the range we outlined last Thursday.
Gold prices are expected to continue to be extremely volatile and unsettled, along with many other assets through this week. Several factors are likely to affect market prices.
- The market prices continue to be heavily influenced by short-term speculative or opportunistic traders riding the momentum upward and downward over the past two weeks.
- Technical price chart analyses, which most momentum traders rely on, is tilting toward lower prices.
- Political and economic developments could push prices sharply in either direction.
- The Fed’s FOMC meeting over the next two days is likely to end with a Fed Funds rate reduction on Wednesday. This seems fully reflected in current gold prices.
- The U.S. government lockdown and political impasse is not likely to be resolved in the next week, at least. Republican strategists see it continuing for some time. It is reducing U.S. real economic activity by 0.1% - 0.2% per week and is set to cause more damage more quickly over the next few weeks.
- The war in Ukraine is likely to continue to worsen this week as Putin steps up bombing civilian targets and the U.S. government continues to hamper an effective Ukrainian response.
- Trade talks and developments between the United States on one side and China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries are likely to be unproductive.
These factors suggest continuing to stand aside perhaps into November.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
