Bitcoin Technical Overview
Bitcoin has reached the midpoint of its October 10 low to the October 6 all-time high, tagging the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement on an upper wick. Despite this advance, volume and on-balance volume remain bearish, and daily RSI has yet to enter overbought territory above 70. The decline in trading volume since last Thursday is a concern, and open CME gaps suggest a pullback to fill these gaps would be healthy before any sustained uptrend resumes. A break above $126,000 could catalyze further upside.
Ethereum and Layer-One Developments
Ethereum briefly traded above the daily TBO Cloud for the first time since October 9, suggesting potential continuation toward $4,800 if Bitcoin sustains gains above $126,000. The ETH/BTC pair pierced overhead resistance on the back of this wick, reinforcing bullish prospects. Solana remains above its 0.618 retracement level despite an open CME gap below price. If SOL can secure consecutive green closes, an on-balance volume crossover may confirm a bullish trajectory, pending reaction at its current resistance.
Market Dominance Metrics
Combined stablecoin dominance has fallen into the daily TBO Cloud, signaling bearish consolidation. A hidden bearish divergence between lower RSI highs and higher price highs suggests a decline toward support near 6.10%. As stablecoin dominance recedes, market sentiment may shift toward greed, fueling leveraged long positions until the next deleveraging event. Bitcoin dominance remains in bullish consolidation within its daily cloud, though a 4-hour TBT bearish divergence—its first since June 10—echoes patterns that preceded a significant altcoin rally. Ethereum and Solana dominance metrics are likewise testing upper cloud boundaries, while OTHERS.D sits in a support zone with an overhead RSI trendline that could mark an altcoin peak if breached. TotalCrypto.D has risen toward 93.20% resistance after printing lower highs on each new Bitcoin ATH since December 2024, reinforcing expectations of a pullback toward 91% over the coming year.
Total Market Capitalization and Alt Rally Outlook
The total crypto market capitalization has expanded with each new Bitcoin high, aligning with our 2021 Fibonacci projections. A move to the 1.272 extension at $4.4 trillion (approximately +20%) is likely when Bitcoin approaches $130,000. Following a Bitcoin peak, an altcoin rally could target the 1.618 extension at $7.51 trillion (+112%). The TOTAL3ESBTC chart’s recent TBT bullish divergence adds to the case for a robust alt rally, while outperformance of SOL relative to ETH remains a key watch.
Macro and Precious Metals
The U.S. Dollar Index is retreating toward its support trendline, with daily RSI neutral and recent 4-hour bearish reversal signals paralleling prior tops that preceded stock market rallies. S&P 500 futures, DJI, NDX and FANG indices all gapped higher on recent CPI news, though daily volume is tapering off. VIX has cooled to 15.80, and the Nikkei surged past 50,000. Gold, however, plunged over 3% on renewed risk appetite; daily RSI has slid to 37.95 and OBV crossed bearish. Gold’s sell-off triggered a BTC/Gold TBO close short, with the next support target at the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $30.50. While gold was overheated, it remains poised to rebound in the next crisis.
Key Altcoin Technical Highlights
BNB’s volume continues to wane, though a green candlestick streak may soon prompt an OBV crossover. HYPE is trading above daily cloud resistance with RSI in overbought territory, albeit offset by a cluster of hourly TBT bearish divergences. HBAR is up nearly 5% following a Sunday TBT bullish divergence and remains in daily bullish consolidation. XMR may be signaling a top with a 4-hour TBO breakout and bearish divergence, while ZEC’s 4-hour TBO breakout cluster has historically led to pullbacks. COAI lost 4-hour TBO support and could see a steep decline, whereas XPL may break overhead resistance if market conditions turn favorable. VIRTUAL’s recent 4-hour TBO breakouts suggest caution, and HNT’s surprise pump concluded with a TBO close short.
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