Fed Meeting and Macro Outlook
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its upcoming meeting, with growing speculation about a transition from quantitative tightening to easing. Despite these dovish signals, markets have shown renewed caution as traders brace for policy guidance and updated economic projections.
Bitcoin Technical Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to breach the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement on the four-hour chart, establishing firm resistance near current levels. A Tom DeMark bearish divergence also appeared on the pullback, signaling an early warning of downward pressure. Additionally, the CME futures gap at $112,355 remains unfilled, suggesting a potential target if bullish momentum returns.
Ethereum and Stablecoin Insights
Ethereum (ETH) underperformed BTC, testing support at the daily Tom DeMark Fast line—a level that has historically held during pullbacks. A sustained move above $4,300 is required to confirm a bullish reversal. Meanwhile, combined stablecoin dominance printed a bearish divergence on the four-hour chart during BTC’s retracement, a pattern that has preceded every major pullback since June.
Market Dominance Metrics
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) recorded a higher wick at 60.17%, continuing its gradual uptrend toward the 61% threshold. Other tokens dominance (OTHERS.D) held within its June support range, suggesting altcoins may be stabilizing. However, the total crypto market cap (TOTALES.D) and the Top 50 cap index (TOTALE50.D) both registered bearish divergences on the four-hour charts, warranting caution for broader market strength.
TradFi and Precious Metals Update
In traditional markets, the S&P 500 is approaching the 7,000 mark with daily RSI poised to exceed its previous peak of 76.85. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices have also posted record highs, while NVIDIA (NVDA) surged past $200. The VIX remains subdued, indicating low market volatility. In the metals complex, gold dipped to a new low of $3,886, whereas silver showed a four-hour Tom DeMark bullish divergence, hinting at a possible bottom-bounce.
Altcoin Highlights
Noteworthy altcoin movements include nearly identical price action between HYPE and BCH, suggesting correlated patterns. HBAR tested overhead resistance with a significant upper wick, and TAO achieved a 20% gain following a TBO springboard bounce. PI is targeting its predictive wick on robust volume despite a longer-term downtrend, while COAI lost four-hour TBO support and registered two breakdowns. Memecoin TRUMP briefly rallied but remains in a bearish trend, and DASH displayed a daily Tom DeMark bearish divergence. Finally, TST saw abnormal four-hour volume accumulation, potentially signaling an imminent breakout.
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