Bitcoin Price Action and Technical Outlook
Bitcoin closed lower yesterday, failing to reclaim the $103,000 level and settling just above $100,000. The daily RSI and on-balance volume (OBV) dipped on the red close, though Bitcoin did register a slightly higher low, indicating buyers remain interested near support. Daily volume met the 50-day moving average, but the four-hour chart shows mixed signals: minor higher lows suggest potential for a bounce, yet selling pressure persists ahead of the weekend’s typically low-liquidity moves.
To reassert bullish control, Bitcoin needs significant buying volume to lift and hold price above $103,000. A lower low today would weaken the prospects for a push into the four-hour TBO Cloud resistance. Traders should watch for decisive daily closes above $103,000 or conversely for breakdowns below $100,000 to define the next directional bias.
Ethereum and ETH/BTC Dynamics
Ethereum remains beneath its daily TBO Cloud, closing yesterday in bearish territory. A sustained daily close above $3,435—the October 10th liquidity-dump low—would likely send ETH back toward the Cloud, where a short entry may form on the TBO Fast line. Weekly OBV recently crossed below its moving average, historically preceding sharp drawdowns. The plan is to short any significant bounce, targeting $1,000, with risk defined by stops above the Cloud.
The ETH/BTC pair has consolidated at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, trading inside the daily TBO Cloud in a bearish consolidation phase. This pattern—price entering the Cloud after a downtrend—typically signals further weakness. Traders should monitor a clear break below the Cloud for continuation or a reclaim for a counter-trend trade.
Market Dominance: Stablecoins, Bitcoin, and Altcoins
Combined stablecoin dominance continues its uptrend, with the TBO Slow line curving higher and a recent green close as crypto markets fell. This trend signals growing defensive positioning toward a “bear market zone.” Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has printed consecutive red closes, but its decline amid rising stablecoin share implies an overall bearish market structure, even as it may spark short-term altcoin rallies.
Othercoins dominance (OTHERS.D) confirmed a second TBT bullish divergence, echoing June’s rally before the alt-season peak. Likewise, TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D are forming daily bullish divergences, although the weekly TOTALES chart remains top-heavy. A TBO Close Short on TOTALE50/ETH and a divergence cluster on OTHERS/BTC reinforce the likelihood of a near-term low-cap rally that may mark the cycle’s end rather than a continued bull run.
TradFi Correlations and Macro Indicators
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) pulled back 0.46% yesterday after failing at a daily TBO breakout, yet weekly patterns suggest a repeat of the 2021 uptrend from sub-90 support toward 114 over roughly 70 weeks. S&P 500 futures fell over 1% with a weekly TBT bearish divergence, lower RSI highs, and flat OBV despite higher prices. The Nasdaq 100, FANG index, and Nvidia all printed or are printing weekly TBT bearish divergences, while the VIX has ticked up but remains below worry levels. The Nikkei also shows a second weekly bearish divergence, underscoring broad equity exhaustion.
Gold Market Update
Gold is drifting higher following recent weakness, yet daily volume is subdued and OBV remains bearish. Price is inside the daily TBO Cloud, indicating consolidation until a decisive close above the Cloud. A sustained break and close above $4,100 would confirm renewed bullish momentum, but traders should watch for volume confirmation to validate any upside continuation.
Altcoin Highlights and Short-Term Opportunities
Solana (SOL) faces resistance at the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib levels and daily TBO Fast line near $173; a rally to these levels may offer a short opportunity. Hedera (HBAR) is holding daily TBO support but risks a sharp decline if it breaks down. Litecoin (LTC) has yet to clear short-term TBO resistance and the Cloud as a cycle-end signal. Mantle (MNT) clings to its 0.786 Fib support, while Monero (XMR) battles TBO resistance between $372 and $390. Polkadot (DOT) is forming a daily TBT bullish divergence, and Zcash (ZEC) shows overbought RSI approaching historical highs, presenting scalping or short setups near $695 and $900. Among smaller caps, Aptos (APT) is up 10%, ICP exhibits weakening volume despite high RSI, and Filecoin (FIL) is awakening with volume support. New listings—MYX and TST—are printing daily TBT bullish divergences, yet traders must heed stablecoin dominance trends to avoid false breakouts.
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