Strengths
- The best-performing precious metal for the week was silver, up 4.85%. Silver’s recent surge is unusual because, historically, it struggles to outperform when gold is flat, typically softening until bullion regains momentum. Given the tight correlation between the two metals, Bloomberg analysts caution that silver’s gains are likely to fade unless gold resumes a sustained move higher.
- Gold surged as U.S. lawmakers moved closer to ending the longest shutdown in American history but slipped later in the week as doubts about a potential rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting grew. Ending the shutdown would provide investors with greater clarity on key economic indicators, such as jobs and inflation, according to Bloomberg.
- Harmony delivered a robust first-quarter 2026 operational update, with group production of 390,000 ounces tracking slightly ahead of UBS’s expectations and all-in sustaining costs of $1,954 per ounce, below the lower end of full-year 2026 guidance. Management reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance.
Weaknesses
- The worst-performing precious metal for the week was platinum, still up 0.68%. Traders are weighing the potential impact of China’s announcement of new platinum and palladium futures markets, which will publish daily warehouse stockpile data. The move is expected to boost market transparency and influence global pricing, as tight inventories, strong Chinese demand, and high borrowing costs continue to strain the platinum market.
- Stifel is updating its estimates following its first look at B2Gold’s third-quarter results, which included a negative guidance revision at Goose due to ramp-up challenges, along with a delay in the Fekola Regional permit, now expected before year-end.
- Silver held in London vaults increased by the largest amount in at least nine years, easing an extreme squeeze that had sent prices soaring over silver stored in Shanghai and New York. Vaults underpinning the London market added nearly 54 million troy ounces of silver in October, according to Bloomberg.
Opportunities
- Sibanye-Stillwater reached an agreement with Appian Capital ahead of the quantum of damages hearing, according to BMO. The company will pay Appian US$215 million. This is positive, as Sibanye-Stillwater can comfortably fund the settlement from its current treasury and removes any overhang, allowing the company to focus on consistent operational delivery and growth.
- Silver Tiger Metals announced it has received all required permits for the open-pit El Tigre Stockwork Silver-Gold Project. Representing a highly anticipated rerating catalyst for its shares, Stifel views the project as a low-capital, significant free cash flow generator, with a one-year payback that could unlock the broader district. An expected preliminary economic assessment on the underground project is likely to detail additional asset value, with the current US$166 million in situ value for underground ounces providing strong downside protection.
- Alex Wolf, global head of macro and fixed income strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, noted in an interview that the price of gold could reach US$5,200 to US$5,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. He expects central bank purchases, a key driver of gold prices, to continue. Wolf also noted that gold as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves remains relatively small, particularly in emerging markets, which are likely to continue adding, albeit perhaps at a slower pace. Many emerging markets are running budget surpluses, and those cash flows will need to be reinvested.
Threats
- Gold is traditionally a hedge against inflation, but in China, rising bullion prices are temporarily easing deflationary pressures. Core inflation last month saw its fastest increase in almost two years, helping the broader consumer price index end three months at or below zero. In October, gold contributed nearly half of the 1.2% rise in the core index, according to Goldman.
- The U.S. Mint reported higher gold coin sales compared with recent months, though the total remained modest at just 9,000 ounces. Given the speed and scale of gold’s recent rally, any correction would need to be significant enough to temper the current exuberance, according to Bloomberg.
- Senegal plans to revise its mining code and tighten oversight of natural resources to increase the state’s stake in private projects and boost revenue amid a deepening debt crisis. A new mining law, expected by year-end, aims to ensure greater domestic benefit from minerals, including increased local processing, according to President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and cabinet meeting minutes.
