Bitcoin Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin printed its third daily TBO Breakdown Cluster yesterday, reinforcing a strong bearish signal. The TBO Slow line continues to curl downward, confirming that the macro trend remains negative. The daily RSI recorded a new local low at 21.23, the weakest since February 2025, while On-Balance Volume shows sustained selling pressure. BTC also breached its first support fan line on a bearish close and has now filled the remaining CME gap around $91,000.
Key support levels lie at $90,000 (50% Fib of 2025), $86,000 (38.2% Fib), and at $69,000, corresponding to the November 2021 high from older retracement studies. While oversold conditions relative to the daily TBO Fast line may trigger short-lived bounces, historical “bull traps” during downtrends suggest any relief rally would be fleeting, with the dominant trend still pointing lower.
Ethereum Outlook
Ethereum’s daily chart shows two recent TBO Breakdowns and a decisive loss of the $3,435 level, alongside weakening daily RSI and OBV. Unlike BTC, ETH’s TBO Slow line remains tilted upward, offering a marginally less bearish macro bias. The RSI has produced lower highs on each bounce and higher lows on each decline, indicating potential for a counter-trend move toward the TBO Fast line.
For a convincing bullish reversal, bulls must push daily RSI above its November 9 peak of 48.27. However, past instances of RSI breakouts in similar patterns were followed by renewed downside, so any rally should be treated as a potential bear-trap until confirmed by further trend-supporting signals.
Stablecoin and Dominance Metrics
Combined stablecoin dominance has climbed to 8.486%, nearing the April 2025 extreme of 8.848%, which marked a market bottom. Although one strategy is to accumulate BTC and ALTs as stablecoin dominance approaches these highs, the absence of daily TBT Bearish Divergences and TBO Close Long signals suggests further downside risk before a reliable bottom.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has dropped below its daily TBO Cloud into strong bearish territory, signaling capital rotation into stables and alternative coins. ALT dominance metrics present mixed signals: OTHERS.D is forming a bullish TBT Divergence Cluster, while TOTALES.D trades in “max fear” territory with confirmed TBO Breakdowns. Meanwhile, TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D indicate increasing share for mid- and low-cap tokens, foreshadowing a potential isolated ALT bounce before broader market recovery.
TradFi Indicators and Macro Factors
The US Dollar Index (DXY) sits above its daily TBO Cloud in strong bullish mode, with support around 96.89 on the horizon. USD/JPY weakness and a surge in Japanese 10-year bond yields highlight stress in Japan’s financial system. In equities, the S&P 500 printed a TBO Close Long warning sign, and S&P Futures is in the process of a rare TBO Cross Down, suggesting mounting bearish pressure. Similar reversal warnings appear on the DJI, NDX, and NVDA charts, while the VIX remains elevated at 22.39 amid rate-cut uncertainty.
Asian markets reflect the global risk-off sentiment: the Nikkei is down over 2%, the Shanghai Composite approaches a bearish divergence, and the Hang Seng trades in bearish consolidation. Even Gold has fallen back into its daily TBO Cloud. A broader TradFi downturn could amplify existing crypto weakness rather than provide sanctuary.
Altcoin Prospects and Key Levels
Many top-15 altcoins are deeply oversold and trading near historical support or daily/weekly TBO support levels. The shift in dominance toward OTHERS.D, TOTALE50.D, and TOTALE100.D underscores greater relative strength in mid- and low-cap altcoins versus Bitcoin’s current decline below $90,000. While a market-wide pump is unlikely immediately, combined stablecoin dominance approaching max-pain levels could ignite an overdue reversal.
For asymmetric setups, monitor coins at or near support such as SOL, HYPE, LTCASTER, STRK, WAND, and TST. These names may offer favorable risk-reward profiles should a short-lived alt rally materialize before year-end.
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