(Kitco News) - Gold posted modest gains today, managing to edge fractionally higher despite facing pressure from an exceedingly strong U.S. dollar. With the dollar index breaking back above 100 and gaining 0.64% on the day, gold's resilience in the face of such pronounced currency strength is noteworthy.
As of 4:25 PM EST, the most active December 2025 gold futures contract traded at $4,070.00, up $3.20 or 0.08%. However, the precious metal gained momentum into the close, rising to $4,075.00—up $7.60—by 4:30 PM. Today's session saw gold open at $4,067.80, reach a high of $4,134.30, and test a low of $4,055.60 before settling at $4,068.70, representing a gain of $1.10.
Perhaps most interesting is gold's ability to overcome an earlier decline triggered by the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting. Market participants are intensely focused on upcoming economic data that will provide insight into the Fed's thinking and future actions regarding U.S. interest rates.
One factor is abundantly clear: the Fed remains divided. While some members advocate for interest rate cuts, other officials have expressed concern that lowering borrowing costs could undermine the fight against inflation, which remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a particularly noteworthy comment during his post-meeting press conference, stating in vivid and blunt terms that a rate cut at the December 9 FOMC meeting was not a "foregone conclusion." This leaves the door open to maintaining current rates, though it hasn't eliminated the possibility of a cut entirely.
According to the CME's Fed Watch tool, there is now just a 33.6% probability of a rate cut in December—a dramatic reduction from yesterday's 50% probability and last week's 62% forecast.
The Federal Reserve faces additional challenges in its decision-making process. Tuesday data revealed that the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits reached a two-month high in mid-October.
Concurrently, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it would not publish the October employment report after a recent government shutdown prevented the collection of necessary household survey data.
For a data-dependent Federal Reserve, making well-informed decisions without critical employment data presents a significant obstacle.
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Wishing you, as always, good trading,
