BTC Technical Outlook
Bitcoin dropped to the lower boundary of its parallel channel, measured from the $126,000 high to the $102,000 low established in October. This channel support is unreinforced by other historical levels, making a bounce here unlikely without significant catalyst. However, the daily RSI closed at 15.79, the lowest since late February, indicating extreme oversold conditions that historically have preceded corrective rallies. In early March, a weekend news-driven surge delivered a 20% advance to the daily TBO Fast line near $97,000, though it ultimately left an unfilled CME gap.
Key levels to monitor on any rebound are the TBO Fast line at approximately $97,000 and the channel midpoint around $95,000. Traders should note that while extreme oversold readings increase the probability of a bounce, they do not guarantee an immediate reversal.
Ethereum and Stablecoin Dominance
Ethereum also extended its decline, printing a third daily TBO Breakdown and entering oversold territory. Nevertheless, its daily RSI remains less bearish than Bitcoin’s, suggesting that any corrective bounce in ETH may occur sooner even as the TBO Breakdown warns of potential further downside.
The combined stablecoin dominance chart commands attention after printing a new local high of 8.859%, surpassing the 8.75% “max fear/pain” threshold seen on August 5, 2024, and April 7, 2025. A sustained breakout here would confirm a bear market environment for BTC and altcoins, while a reversal from this level could mark a market-wide bottom. The daily RSI’s higher high and a bullish TBO Cloud with an upward-curling Slow line currently favor continuation to the upside until proven otherwise by today’s candle close.
Crypto Dominance Shifts
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) confirmed a TBO Open Short on the daily close, signaling further decline toward TBO support at 57.37%, characteristic of a bearish cycle. In contrast, Solana Dominance (SOL.D) registered a second daily TBT Bullish Divergence, underscoring ongoing capital rotation into SOL despite Bitcoin’s red close. Top 10 Dominance produced its third TBT Bullish Divergence cluster, and the “Others” category (OTHERS.D) continues to push higher with overbought RSI readings, reflecting broadening altcoin interest.
Market Cap Trends and Macro Environment
The total crypto market cap (TOTALES) slid further, driving its daily RSI to 19.56—its lowest since late February—while the “Others” segment nears daily TBO support without bullish reversal signals. Conversely, TOTAL3ESBTC remains above its daily TBO Cloud, edging into strong bullish territory, mirroring the pattern in OTHERS/BTC. A decisive reversal in stablecoin dominance is the linchpin for any sustainable crypto rally.
In traditional markets, the DXY index rose to 100.360, matching levels from November 5, but its daily RSI posted lower highs, indicating waning upside momentum. Despite a daily TBO bullish bias and a curling Slow line, the weekly TBO Close Short warns of a potential retreat toward 97.714 before any rebound—an outcome that could fuel a late-year rally in equities. Equity markets sold off sharply, with the S&P 500 down 1.56%, the Nasdaq 100 off 2.38% (led by a 3.15% drop in NVDA), and the VIX spiking to 26.41. The Nikkei, Shanghai Composite, and Hang Seng also registered notable declines, reinforcing a risk-off tone.
Altcoin Highlights
Major altcoins present mixed technical setups. BNB closed below key support with declining OBV and bearish volume dynamics. Solana price remains subdued despite its dominance outperformance. Dogecoin sits at historical TBO support (~$0.15), poised for a bounce if stablecoin dominance reverses. Litecoin broke daily TBO support but may lead any subsequent alt rally. Monero printed a daily TBO Close Long and awaits a tag of the fast line. CRO hovers near a support fan around 0.09323, historically a launch point on reversals. ZEC achieved a Springboard Bounce off TBO resistance, while ASTER and ATOM exhibit 4-hour TBO reversals. MORPHO continues to respect its multi-touch support range, whereas AERO risks further downside absent an imminent bounce. XTZ is testing daily TBO support, STRK retains a bullish bias above its cloud, and Telcoin’s recent 4-hour bearish divergences signal caution. Overall, altcoin performance remains contingent on the pivotal reaction in stablecoin dominance.
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