Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin printed a TBT Bullish Divergence on yesterday’s unexpected 5% rally, lifting the daily RSI and pushing price into the daily TBO Cloud once again. Holding within this cloud would signal genuine strength and mark a potential shift in trend.
Critical levels are $93,092, the high from Friday’s wick, and $95,000, the upper boundary of the bear flag parallel channel. A sustained move above $93,092 could rapidly test $95,000, though muted volume suggests the current move may be driven by short-covering rather than fresh demand.
Ethereum and ETH/BTC Analysis
Ethereum also produced a TBT Bullish Divergence and printed a strong daily candle, yet volume remains below its moving average. Continued green closes would likely trigger a bullish OBV crossover above its MA, reinforcing upward momentum.
Additionally, the ETH/BTC pair formed a fourth consecutive TBT Bullish Divergence Cluster, underscoring ETH’s relative strength against Bitcoin.
Shifts in Dominance Metrics
Stablecoin dominance registered a TBT Bearish Divergence on yesterday’s pullback, hinting at early rotation back into crypto assets. Confirmation requires this chart to close inside its daily TBO Cloud.
Conversely, Bitcoin dominance confirmed a TBO Close Short signal and is climbing within its cloud despite a bearish macro backdrop, delaying a broader shift into smaller-cap altcoins (OTHERS.D).
Altcoins and Market Breadth
The TOTALS.D chart mirrored the sequence of signals seen in May, suggesting the possibility of new lows across the market despite improving daily RSI. The overall crypto market cap chart shows similar RSI strength returning, which could set the stage for a broad-based altcoin rebound.
Traditional Finance Indicators
The US Dollar Index is in the process of printing a TBO Close Long on today’s candle, echoing the January–February pattern, and appears poised to resume its decline toward 97. S&P 500 futures continue to struggle at resistance, with low volume and untested RSI.
PAXG/BTC also printed a TBT Bearish Divergence, indicating continued pressure on tokenized gold relative to Bitcoin.
Strategic Considerations for Traders
Market makers have conditioned participants to expect further downside, and the macro trend remains bearish with potential for a retest of $80,000 or lower for Bitcoin. However, a decisive break above Friday’s $93,000 high would warrant a tactical pivot to longs, offering greater upside potential than continued short positions.
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