This year, gold and oil are in two vastly different situations. Brent crude has fallen nearly 17% since January, while XAUUSD has risen nearly 60%.
Does this mean that gold has little room left to rise, while oil prices could be poised for a rebound?
Starting with oil, although OPEC+ ministers confirmed over the weekend that they would maintain the pause in production increases in the first quarter of 2026, and despite the uncertainty surrounding Venezuela, which produces around one million barrels per day, analysts continue to wonder whether prices could fall below $60.
Why?
First, there is still hope that the United States will avoid military action in Venezuela. Second, there is a persistent belief that the war in Ukraine could soon end with a peace agreement. For now, uncertainty remains, but the market clearly does not believe that supply will be a problem. And if the AI bubble bursts and the U.S. economy enters a recession, oil demand could weaken further, as could prices.
As for gold, although demand already appears to be strong, Deutsche Bank recently raised its price forecast for 2026 from $4,000 to $4,450 per ounce, and for 2027 the forecast now stands at $5,150. The main drivers are expected to be steady demand from central banks and large investment flows, including ETFs, which absorb a significant portion of the available supply. And, of course, if the Fed does not disappoint and continues to cut rates as expected, gold will benefit, even more so if the dollar weakens again.
Surprisingly, cryptocurrencies could also support the value of gold. More specifically, Tether, the issuer of USDT. It has quietly become one of the largest buyers of physical gold. According to Jefferies, the company owned approximately 116 tons of gold at the end of the third quarter, which is comparable to the holdings of a small central bank. And if rumors that Tether plans to acquire another 100 tons by the end of 2025 are true, the metal could end the year on a strong note.
Why does Tether need gold?
It serves as collateral for its XAUT (Tether Gold) token, where each token represents one troy ounce of gold. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has also repeatedly emphasized the need to diversify the business, which is why the company has been buying gold for some time, including as part of its reserves backing USDT.
All in all, while gold has surged this year, it still has room to grow, whereas oil could remain under pressure. Of course, things could change depending on how circumstances evolve.