Bitcoin Breaks into Daily TBO Cloud
Bitcoin closed inside the daily TBO Cloud for the first time since late October, marking a significant shift into bullish consolidation. While volume remains subdued relative to the breakout, both the On‐Balance Volume (OBV) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) have trended higher, supporting the move. Key resistance lies at the fan trendline near $94,810 and the upper boundary of the parallel channel just above $95,000. A decisive push above these levels would invalidate the bear flag structure and set the stage for a retest of $100,000.
Conversely, failure to breach overhead supply could see Bitcoin form a higher low, confirming the bear flag and potentially targeting lower support. Traders should monitor volume confirmation and momentum oscillators on hourly and daily timeframes to gauge follow‐through.
Ethereum’s Technical Upswing and ETH/BTC Signal
Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, surging to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $3,255 and closing inside its daily TBO Cloud. A sustained move above $3,435 would bolster bullish conviction. Supporting indicators include a bullish OBV crossover above its moving average and an RSI local high of 64.16, signaling upward momentum.
Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC pair broke above its key resistance line and printed a TBO Close Short signal, historically a precursor to altcoin rallies. As ETH/BTC leads broader altcoin performance, this breakout could catalyze rotation into smaller-cap tokens over the coming days.
Dominance Metrics Signal Alt-Season Rotation
Combined stablecoin dominance closed inside the daily TBO Cloud, shifting from strong bullish to bearish consolidation and indicating reduced flight to USDT‐like assets. Bitcoin dominance also dropped below its cloud, underscoring diminishing BTC market share.
Simultaneous declines in BTC.D and stablecoin dominance typically precede altcoin strength. Others.D is printing an RSI reset with a higher low since October, while TOTALES.D has entered its cloud, confirming bullish consolidation. This constellation of signals suggests growing upward pressure on altcoin capitalization.
TradFi Markets: Correlations and Divergences
The US Dollar Index (DXY) printed a TBO Close Long signal and is nearing an RSI reset, mirroring patterns observed in early 2021. S&P 500 futures have inched higher but remain range-bound with daily RSI respecting resistance. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed modestly higher, while the VIX stabilized at 16.09, holding near short‐term support.
Asia markets present a mixed picture: the Nikkei appears to execute a bump‐and‐run reversal after reclaiming prior resistance, though volume and OBV are weakening. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng persist in bearish consolidation, highlighting regional divergence in risk appetite.
Gold and Silver Technical Review
Gold is trading near $4,200, just below the 2.272 Fibonacci extension from the 1980–1999 range. Despite this proximity, daily volume and OBV remain subdued, suggesting limited conviction. Silver continues to stall at the $59 resistance level, failing to attract sufficient buying pressure to overcome its short‐term ceiling.
Key Altcoin Setups to Watch
Among major altcoins, BNB is executing a bump‐and‐run setup, retracing to former resistance with a target at the 1.272 extension. Solana and numerous mid‐cap tokens have entered their daily TBO Clouds, signaling shifts into bullish consolidation. LINK and BCH have also closed inside their respective clouds, with BCH approaching resistance at $597.
ZEC printed an RSI reset while closing green, ENA sits at critical overhead resistance near 0.7899, and AAVE printed its first TBO Close Short since April. DASH and ZORA are generating multiple TBT bullish divergences on four‐hour charts, and COMP shows cautionary TBT bearish divergences alongside a declining OBV. Traders should align position sizing with macro risk sentiment ahead of potential volatility in alt markets.
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