CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:10 p.m. EST 12 December 2025 $4,304 (Basis the February 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Buy
Initial Target Price / Range: $4,440
Initial Timeframe: 12 December 2025 to 2 January 2026
Stop Loss: $4,250
Gold prices shot up to $4,387.80 today before retreating. This was a little more than $10 shy of the record $4,398 reached on 20 October. Gold prices have managed to hold up above $3,900 since October and mostly above $4,000 since November. Gold has made higher highs and higher lows since late October. Technically, gold is on pace more move higher, with the uptrend remaining in place for prices.
There are several factors that appear to be adding to gold’s volatile activity today. This week there was news of the U.S. seizing an oil tanker off the cos of Venezuela. While oil prices reacted modestly, further seizures of Venezuelan oil tankers could have an increasingly adverse effect on the crude oil market, financial markets, and political sentiment.
Equity volatility also appears to have recently increased. Technology stocks appear to be dragging equity indices lower. Broad market sell-offs tend to weigh on gold prices initially as participants move to cover margin requirements and typically raise cash, selling gold. But, once the broad sell-offs pass, gold can potentially move quickly higher right after.
There are many more factors supporting and pushing gold prices higher that have been discussed in these Trade Recommendations and other CPM reports and media. This all said, volatility is expected to continue and while CPM currently recommends a buy at current levels, there also should be a stop-loss initiated in case of another drop in prices, given the volatility over the past several months.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
