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Main U.S. indexes dip ahead of the Fed: DJI off >0.5%
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U.S. Jan ISM Mfg PMI < estimate; prices paid > estimate
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Dec construction spending < estimate; Dec JOLTS > estimate
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Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
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Dollar, gold, crude, bitcoin all edge down
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dips to ~3.49%
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U.S. STOCKS MOSTLY RED AHEAD OF FED (1017 EST/1517 GMT)
The main U.S. stock indexes are lower early on Wednesday as
investors cautiously await the Federal Reserve's decision on
interest rates later in the day, while chipmaker Advanced Micro
Devices climbed on an upbeat outlook.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, a 25 basis point hike at
the conclusion of FOMC meeting is a done deal, at 99.3%.
Stocks are under pressure, with the main indexes lower. The
DJI is off more than 0.5%, while the Nasdaq is
just below flat. Most S&P 500 sectors are red with materials taking the biggest hit. Healthcare and tech are slightly green.
Transports are showing strength, up more than 1%, and
the chip index , in the wake of AMD's report, is up more
than 2%.
The S&P 500 just enjoyed its biggest January rise since
2019, while the Nasdaq had its best January gain since
2001.
In a note, Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P
DJ Indices, said "As for the January barometer of 'so goes
January, so goes the year,' it has been correct 71.28% of the
time since 1929 (and it worked in 2022: January was down, as was
the year), as this January has posted a 6.18% gain."
Silverblatt added, "The first day indicator is a coin-toss,
correct 50% of the time (did not work in 2022, as the first day
closed at a closing high, and it was the highest close of the
year), with the first day this year down 0.40% - so one of the
two are going to be wrong."
Here is a snapshot of where market stood around 45 minutes
into the trading day:
(Terence Gabriel, Sinéad Carew)
*****
S&P 500 INDEX: GOLDEN CROSS NEARS (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
The spread between the S&P 500 index's rising 50-day
moving average (DMA) and its descending 200-DMA ended Tuesday at
just over -8 points:
That's the tightest reading since March 14, 2022. At that
time, however, the 50-DMA had broken below the 200-DMA, and
these closely watched moving averages were diverging.
Given that they are now converging at just over 4 points per
session, there is potential for a golden cross to occur over the
next few days. Such a development can potentially suggest a
major advance is underway.
The last such cross occurred in the wake of the pandemic
crash on July 9, 2020. That golden cross occurred 75 trading
days after the March 23, 2020 SPX low. This time, Tuesday marked
the 74th trading day since the SPX's October 13, 2022 low, so
there will a close symmetry in time should the cross happen by
the week's end.
From the July 2020 cross, the SPX advanced more than 50%
into its early-January 2022 record high.
Meanwhile, the SPX, which closed at 4,076.50 on Tuesday,
faces resistance at four distinct September 2022-January 2023
highs that run from 4,094.21 to 4,119.28.
There is support around 4,015 (233-DMA/January 30th high)
then 3,975 (broken resistance line from January 2022 high). The
50- and 200-DMA's should be down around the 3,952-3,948 area on
Wednesday.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR WEDNESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400
GMT - CLICK HERE
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
