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U.S. equity index futures slip: S&P 500 off ~0.3%
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U.S. Jan retail sales MM, ex-autos MM > estimates
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Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat
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Dollar up; gold, crude fall; bitcoin gains >2%
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.77%
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BITCOIN BACK ON TRACK AFTER FALSE BREAK? (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
Recently battered bitcoin is trying to make a quick
come back. And if last week's downside range resolution proves
to be a false break, it may signal another risk-on charge.
From its Feb. 2 high, BTC plunged about 12% into its low on
Monday:
With this, the Nasdaq Composite , which also topped
on Feb. 2, lost more than 5% over its next six trading days.
BTC's recent decline included a sharp slide last Wednesday
to Friday. Just prior to this, bitcoin's daily Bollinger Band
(BB) width, a historical volatility measure, had once again
become especially compressed suggesting a market ripe for much
more spirited action, or indeed, its next trend.
Given BTC's breakdown, BB width popped. However, unlike with
several sharp BTC slides in the spring and summer of last year,
or its explosive advance earlier this year, the measure's rise
proved surprisingly stunted.
A stunted BB width rise occurred in fall 2022 with a BTC
upside breakout. Bitcoin's bigger move then occurred after
reversing back below its 20-day moving average (DMA).
BTC is now rallying back to challenge its 20-DMA at just
over $22,750. Reclaiming and holding above this swing level can
tilt back toward the potential for a further rise in volatility
to instead accompany an upside run.
Such a turn could be good news for stock bulls given that
bitcoin's rolling 50-day correlation with the IXIC is a robust
0.89 (1.00 is a perfect positive correlation).
(Terence Gabriel)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
