*
NZ c.bank raises rates 50 bps to over 14-yr high, expects
more
*
RBNZ still sees rates peak at 5.5%, say inflation 'too
high'
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NZ dlr rallies, swap rates rise as markets see upside rate
risk
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RBNZ to look past short-term price pressures from floods,
cyclone
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(Updates market reaction, adds governor comments from press
conference)
By Lucy Craymer
WELLINGTON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central
bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a more than
14-year high of 4.75% on Wednesday, and said it expects to keep
tightening further as inflation remains too high, a hawkish
signal that sent the local dollar surging.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said it was too early
to assess the policy implications of the recent devastating
cyclone and floods in the country's North Island, and expects to
look past the short-term price pressures stemming from the
"extreme weather events".
The RBNZ continues to expect the official cash rate (OCR) to
peak at 5.5% in 2023, according to the monetary policy statement
(MPS) accompanying the rate decision. That would mark the most
aggressive policy tightening streak since the official cash rate
was introduced in 1999.
"While there are early signs of price pressure easing, core
consumer price inflation remains too high, employment is still
beyond its maximum sustainable level, and near-term inflation
expectations remain elevated," the central bank said in a
statement.
The decision was largely in line with a Reuters poll.
The latest policy statement from the RBNZ, which was
among the first global central banks to withdraw pandemic-era
stimulus, suggests the bank is in less of a hurry than many of
its peers in shifting to smaller rate increases after a sweeping
series of rapid-fire moves.
INFLATION CHALLENGE
The New Zealand dollar rose as high as $0.6246 after the decision, reflecting the hawkish tone of the statement, having traded as low as $0.6206 earlier. It was last fetching $0.6238. The two-year swaps are currently at 5.26%, compared to 5.18% at start of day, and markets are now pricing an OCR peak of 5.38% verses 5% two weeks ago.
"There was some speculation that the RBNZ would keep the OCR on hold for the time being," ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley said in a note to clients. "But the impacts of weather disasters will only make the RBNZ’s job of curbing inflation more challenging," he said. ASB expects another 50-basis-point rate increase in April, and Tuffley noted there was some risk the RBNZ will do more over time. New Zealand's annual inflation is currently running near three-decade highs of 7.2%, well above the central bank's medium term target of 1%-3%.
Addressing a post-policy press conference, RBNZ Governor
Adrian Orr said inflation is expected to hit 7.3% in the first
quarter before easing.
"The business cycle is such that inflation pressures are very strong and inflation is too high. So the direction of our official cash rate was straightforward," Orr added.
WEATHER CONUNDRUM
Flash floods hit New Zealand's largest city of Auckland in
late January and two weeks later Cyclone Gabrielle caused havoc
across much of the North Islands. The two events left 15 people
dead and have caused billions of dollars of damage.
While the rebuild will boost the economy and inflation -
already an issue for the central bank - growth is set to slow in
the short term.
"The Committee acknowledged the significant regional impacts
that the severe weather events will have across New Zealand, and
agreed that the government’s fiscal policy response would be
more effective at addressing these, rather than any monetary
policy activity," the central bank said.
The RBNZ continues to expects New Zealand to slip into a
recession in the second quarter of this year, but sees growth
rebounding in the first quarter of 2024, earlier than its
previous forecast.
"Given the likely medium-term inflation impacts of the
cyclone, we see the risks around our forecast 5.25% OCR peak as
now tilted to the upside," ANZ bank economist said in a note.
"However, like the RBNZ, we’re in wait-and-see mode until the picture becomes clearer." (Reporting by Lucy Craymer Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
