The Russian currency's months-long slide has accelerated in April, touching a one-year low at 83.50 to the dollar on April 7, owing in part to exports falling in value terms and imports recovering quite quickly.
The central bank has developed a more hawkish stance this year and is still warning of inflationary risks, something the market may interpret as an intention to hold or raise rates at its next board meeting on April 28. The bank said price dynamics were moderate in Q1, with restrained consumption as imports recover among the main disinflationary factors.
The central bank said annual inflation had fallen sharply to 3.51% last month due to the high base effect. Prices in March 2022 rose by 7.61% in month-on-month terms after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine last year.
April will also see a slowdown in inflation, but in the following months, price increases will gradually become more substantial, the bank said. It expects inflation to end the year between 5% and 7%, before returning to the 4% target in 2024. (Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya and Alexander Marrow; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Christina Fincher)
