*
March surplus at $2.9 bln, vs $4 bln in poll
*
Exports -11.3% y/y, vs poll's -15%
*
Imports -6.3% y/y, vs poll's -14.5%
(Adds details, economist comment)
By Stefanno Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo
JAKARTA, April 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus
narrowed to $2.91 billion in March, smaller than expected, as
its exports and imports beat forecasts, official data showed on
Monday.
A Reuters poll had expected a surplus of $3.99 billion in
March. The resource-rich country booked a surplus of $5.46
billion in February, according to a revised figure provided by
the statistics bureau.
Southeast Asia's largest economy saw its exports rise to a
record high last year on high global commodity prices, but
shipments have gradually slowed as prices moderate.
Exports in March dropped 11.33% on a yearly basis to $23.5
billion, less than the 15% fall forecast in the poll, and
compared with a revised February growth of 4.44%.
Economists have said the expected drop in exports was due to
baseline effects. But the March decline still marked the
sharpest annual fall since May 2020.
Deputy head of the statistics bureau, Imam Machdi, said a
decline in the value of palm oil shipments due to falling prices
was among the biggest drivers of export contraction. The bureau
said March palm oil prices were 45% below prices in March 2022.
Imports were worth $20.59 billion, down 6.26% from the same
month last year, but a smaller drop than the 14.45% decline seen
in the poll. Imports fell 4.32% in February.
Radhika Rao, an economist with DBS Bank, said base effects
would continue to weigh on annual comparisons for export growth
over the next six to seven months on top of softness in prices
of Indonesia's key commodities.
"Even as nominal exports was better than our forecast,
the March trade surplus narrowed to a greater extent due to
strong pick-up in imports, likely associated with seasonal
demand drivers around this period," she said, referring to
rising demand during the Muslim fasting month and ahead of the
Eid al-Fitr celebrations.
(Reporting by Stefanno Sulaiman, Gayatri Suroyo and Fransiska
Nangoy; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor)
