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U.S. equity index futures modestly red: Dow off ~0.3%
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U.S. Mar core PCE price index MM in-line with est; YY >
est
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U.S. Q1 employment costs 1.2% vs 1.1% est
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Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat
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Dollar, crude rise; gold, bitcoin dips
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield slides to ~3.44%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: PRESSURE IN THE PIPE (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) Although the S&P 500 index ended Thursday virtually flat for the week, shorter-term volatility has certainly picked up.
The benchmark index gave up as much as 2% through Wednesday, only to surge back as much as 2.2% on Thursday. That said, the SPX remains trapped in a range, and just shy of some major resistance. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite , which also experienced some sharp swings this week, has seen one historical volatility measure on a daily basis collapse to a 20-month low, suggesting it is especially ripe for even greater swings, or indeed its next trend. On Thursday, the Composite's daily Bollinger Band (BB) width ended at its tightest reading since August 25, 2021. Compressed band width does not in itself predict direction, but traders are on alert for what could end up being a surprisingly strong IXIC range breakout. An IXIC thrust above this year's high at 12,270, as well as the upper daily BB, now around 12,285, will have potential to spark upside momentum. Conversely, taking out the lower daily BB, which ended Thursday at 11,855, as well as Tuesday's low at 11,798, and the 50-day moving average, which closed Thursday at 11,788, will have the potential to trigger a sharp downside spill. Perhaps not surprisingly, the S&P 500 tech sector is exhibiting similarly tight daily BB width as the Nasdaq Composite. Given that tech accounts for nearly 30% of S&P 500 market cap, it would appear that market fireworks are not far off.
(Terence Gabriel)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
