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U.S. equity index futures green: Nasdaq 100 up ~1%
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U.S. Apr CPI MM in-line with est, YY < est
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U.S. Apr core CPI MM, YY in-line with ests
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Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.1%
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Dollar dips; gold, crude, bitcoin gain
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~3.47%
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U.S. STOCK FUTURES CHEER ROUGHLY IN-LINE CPI (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) U.S. equity index futures have strengthened in the wake of the release of the latest data on U.S. inflation. The April CPI, on a month-over-month basis, was in-line with the estimate, while the year-over-year number came in below the Reuters Poll. The month-over-month and year-over-year core readings were in-line with estimates:
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged at their June 13-14 meeting is now 85% from 80% just before the numbers were released. There is now around a 15% chance of a 25 basis point increase vs 20% prior to the data coming out. CME e-mini S&P 500 futures are rallying around 0.8%. The futures were just below flat in the moments before the numbers came out.
All S&P 500 sector SPDR ETFs are quoted higher in premarket trade with consumer discretionary and communication services posting the biggest gains. XLY and XLC are up around 1% each. Regarding the inflation data, Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at Slatestone Wealth, said: “I don’t necessarily think it’s a blazing bullish report but it’s going to give some people the option to argue for a pause and a pivot from the Fed, which I don’t think is the case. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. I don’t see a pivot in all of 2023.” Polcari added "Futures were up because it wasn’t a stronger number. Futures went from being nervous to now being bullish that the Fed is making progress and is not going to raise rates any more."
Here is a premarket snapshot from shortly before 0900 EDT:
(Terence Gabriel, Sinéad Carew)
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)