NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell further and a gauge of global equity markets tried to rebound on Thursday as investors took the long view that interest cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks were still coming, though not as quickly as expected.
Investors bid up bond prices, which move inversely to their yield, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday pushed back on market speculation that rates would be cut in March, sparking a sell-off on Wall Street and a dollar rally.
MSCI's all-country world index (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab, a measure of equity performance in 47 countries, seesawed as Wall Street shrugged off the prior day's slump and expected strong earnings and megacap results after the bell.
A number of investors already had discounted the narrative that many cuts were on the horizon, said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey.
"To most investors the important thing is the trend that rates are likely headed lower, even if it's not as quickly as some would like," Meckler said, adding the focus is now on earnings and whether megacap results can support their prices.
"Is there room for price growth in already stretched valuations in these stocks?" he said. "Earnings will be good eventually. We'll move to lower rates. Maybe the worst is past."
Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab iPhone sales are expected to show the best growth in five quarters, but analysts see a tough year for the company in China. Traders are eager to see if Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab can cash in on its delivery heft by boosting fee revenue from its "Buy With Prime" service.
"Our market positioning model shows that the Nasdaq is meaningfully stretched to the long side," said Beata Manthey, head of European Equity Strategy at Citi. "So the sell-off yesterday didn't alarm me."
The MSCI ACWI rose 0.17%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab rose 0.24%, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab gained 0.44% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab added 0.49%.
Futures have pared bets for a rate cut in March to 36.5% from almost 90% at year-end 2023 and increased the likelihood of a cut to 93.3% when the Fed meets in May, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
The Fed's inflation fight got a boost on Thursday, with data showing U.S. worker productivity grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter to keep unit labor costs contained.
Labor Department data also showed job market momentum is fading gradually, which could help to curb wage inflation. First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high last week, other data showed.
The dollar fell against the euro and yen, while sterling rebounded from a Bank of England meeting in which it said more evidence of slowing inflation was needed before it would cut rates.
The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.41%. The euro rose 0.31% to $1.085, the yen strengthened 0.54% to 146.11 per dollar and sterling was at $1.2706, up 0.17% on the day.
At the Bank of England meeting, six of nine policy-setters voted to keep borrowing costs at a 16-year high of 5.25%, two voted to hike and one to cut. It was the first three-way split since the 2008 financial crash.
Euro zone inflation eased as expected last month but underlying price pressures fell less than forecast, likely boosting the European Central Bank's argument that rate cuts should not be rushed.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), opens new tab lost 0.46%.
Treasuries rallied strongly as 10-year yields dived 14.1 basis points to 3.824% in the wake of the Fed decision.
The rush into bonds had been further encouraged by renewed jitters over regional U.S. banks after shares of New York Community Bancorp crashed 37% on Wednesday to the lowest in over two decades after posting a surprise loss.
Asian markets had been choppy overnight. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific (.MIAP00000PUS), opens new tab ending down 0.4% although sentiment was helped by a stabilization in Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab, along with some better surveys on home prices and manufacturing.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab eased 0.8% as the yen gained. South Korea (.KS11), opens new tab bounced 1.8% following upbeat trade data and a survey showing factory activity grew for the first time in 19 months.
Oil prices pared Wednesday's sharp losses as Middle East tensions helped offset concerns about oversupply and soft global demand.
U.S. crude rose 0.84% to $76.49 per barrel and Brent was at $81.17, up 0.77% on the day.
Gold prices gained after data showed U.S. weekly jobless claims rose last week. Spot gold was up 1.2% at $2,061.99 per ounce, eyeing its fourth straight session of gains.
Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Ros Russell and Richard Chang
