Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. holiday sales are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, but growth is set to be slower than last year, the National Retail Federation forecast on Thursday as macroeconomic pressures loom over consumer spending.
The holiday selling season spans the period from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a large chunk of retailers' annual sales.
Persistent inflation, the fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and the federal government shutdown pose risks, as shoppers become cautious about buying extravagant gifts.
"American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement.
The economic stress on spending had led to multiple forecasts of a subdued holiday shopping season this year as well as muted forecasts for the period from companies including Tapestry (TPR.N), Under Armour (UAA.N), and Canada Goose (GOOS.TO), on Thursday, as worried consumers reconsider big purchases, especially as prices rise.
"As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices, given the uncertainty about trade policies," NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said.
Spending will rise in a range of 3.7% to 4.2% to between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, compared with a 4.3% rise to $976.1 billion in November and December last year, NRF said.
The report also said retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market, and below 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.
NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators, including consumer spending, employment, wages and previous monthly retail sales releases, focusing on core retail and excluding certain categories such as automobile dealers, gasoli
