U.K. jobs numbers impress but wages need to catch up

Kitco Media
By Rajan Dhall
Published
Updated
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(Kitco News) - The U.K. sees another unemployment rate of 3.8% which is below pre-pandemic levels. New ONS data shows the number of working women is now 2 million more than in 2010. The U.K. employment rate has been on a steady trajectory as levels have been improving steadily. Pay excluding bonuses, rose slightly to 4.3 per cent for the period without taking inflation into account. This will continue to be a concern to the government and the Bank of England.

ONS head of labour market and household statistics David Freeman said: “Today’s figures continue to suggest a mixed picture for the labour market. He added “The number of people in employment remains below pre-pandemic levels and, while the number of people neither working nor looking for a job is now falling, it remains well up on where it was before Covid-19 struck.

Freeman then said “With demand for labour clearly still very high, unemployment fell again, employment rose and there was another record low for redundancies. Lastly saying “Following recent increases in inflation, pay is now clearly falling in real terms, both including and excluding bonuses.”

GBP/USD is trading higher today but not as much as its counterparts against the greenback. AUD/USD and EUR/USD are both over 1% higher and are outperforming the GBP which lends the suggestion that the FX theme of the day is more about USD weakness than strength in the pound following the employment results. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2018 just above the 1.20 psychological area it has been flirting with over the last few sessions. Historically speaking there have been some strong reactions around the zone and it should be watched over the longer-term horizon. 

U.K. June payrolls change +31k vs +90k prior.

May ILO unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.9% expected.

May average weekly earnings +6.2% vs +6.7% 3m/y expected.

 

Kitco Media

Rajan Dhall

Rajan Dhall is a financial analyst that has been in the trading industry since 2009. From working in Canary Wharf (London) as a head trader to becoming a journalist on a real-time news desk, Rajan has worked his way through many positions in the financial sector. The main area of Raj's expertise lies in technical and statistical analysis. Rajan currently lectures technical analysis with the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) at the London School of Economics. One of the main areas Rajan has based his analysis on is probability. Raj completed his certification (probability) with Harvard and regularly uses probability theories in his analysis as he feels it helps him add value to his clients and customers.

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