(Kitco News) - The junior mining sector is buzzing with potential as gold prices hit record highs and a new U.S. presidential term promises significant policy shifts, according to Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital.
Geiger shared his insights at the 2025 Mines Money Conference in Miami, offering a bullish outlook tempered by caution. The sector is "probably at the end of the beginning" of a larger metal cycle, he told Kitco Mining. Despite gold's strong performance, metal equities, especially juniors, have been "largely left behind," Geiger said, adding, "there's still a significant run road to move for the broader metals equities."
Central banks and gold
A primary driver for rising gold prices is the increasing activity of central banks. "The primary catalyst...has been central bank buying through and through," Geiger noted while highlighting a retail response, primarily in the Eastern world.
The new administration is expected to have a net positive impact on the mining space. According to Geiger, "Trump is an extremely effective cheerleader for the causes that he champions."
Expedited permitting is a potential boon, though Geiger points out that NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act) reform, which would require congressional approval, faces an uphill battle.
However, the potential dismantling of the Department of Energy's loan program could remove crucial financial support for critical mineral projects. Additionally, Geiger cautions about inflationary pressures from tariffs, noting, "There is uncertainty on the cost front, and that could cause trouble for some of these later-stage developers."
M&A on the horizon
The gold sector is ripe for M&A activity, especially after Newmont's divestment of several mines. With many companies having evaluated Newmont's assets, they are now free to pursue other opportunities. Geiger notes that gold remains a metal that can be transacted with Chinese parties, further boosting M&A prospects.
Despite higher metal prices, financing remains a hurdle for junior companies, Geiger points out. "From what I'm seeing, there's not been a noticeable uplift." He notes that the total amount raised by TSXV-listed mining issuers is still significantly below 2010 levels but says solid projects and management teams are responding pretty well.
What makes a smart deal?
Geiger emphasized that most deals are value-destructive for the acquirer. He shared key questions to consider when evaluating a deal, including whether there are operational synergies between the assets and whether the acquirer has the financial bandwidth to push the project forward. He mentioned Alamos Gold's takeover of Argonaut and Lundin Mining's takeover of 70 percent of Casarones as deals that checked all the boxes. Watch the video above for insights.
Special thanks to our sponsor, Goldshore Resources, for making this coverage possible. Visit https://goldshoreresources.com/ to learn more.
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