(Kitco News) Gold’s successive all-time highs in 2025, silver’s surge to levels last seen decades ago, and another year of heavy central bank buying have pushed the precious metals market into what Ronald Peter Stöferle believes is its next acceleration phase.
In an Outlook 2026 interview with Kitco News, the managing partner at Incrementum AG and co-author of the In Gold We Trust report said the past year shows how quickly the cycle is shifting - and how underexposed most Western investors remain.
Stöferle said the volatility in gold this year was a sign of strength, not fragility, pointing to the rapid rebound after the autumn selloff as confirmation that many investors “missed the gold train” and are now buying every dip.
Incrementum’s Active Aurum Signal recently moved from offensive to neutral, leading the team to trim some junior momentum positions and reallocate toward larger, higher-quality producers, while keeping a 70% overall allocation. He emphasized that physical buying, especially from emerging markets and central banks, has become more important to price discovery than paper markets.
Looking ahead to 2026, Stöferle said the combination of central bank demand, underweight Western portfolios, and a possible shift in the U.S. dollar could push gold into a stronger phase of the cycle. He added that even a modest increase in institutional allocations next year could have a meaningful impact.
A Two-Zone Monetary World and the Dollar’s Next Move
One of the most important themes for 2026 is the emergence of two competing monetary spheres, according to Stöferle. On one side is a gold-leaning system centered on China, Russia, India, and parts of the Middle East. On the other side is the traditional U.S.-led framework supported by Treasuries, technology, and military power. He noted that recent U.S. policy language referencing a “Bretton Woods realignment” suggests the discussion around a reshaped global monetary system is becoming more mainstream. A decisive dollar downturn, he added, has not yet begun but could become a major driver for precious metals next year.
Why Silver’s 2026 Setup Is So Strong
Silver’s breakout drew global attention this year, but Stöferle said the move reflects fundamentals that have been building for some time. Mine supply has been largely flat, recycling has not kept pace, and industrial demand has surged due to solar installations, defense spending, electric vehicles, and data centers. With five consecutive annual supply deficits, he said the metal remains inexpensive relative to gold and is positioned for what could be its strongest year since 2011. “We will see triple-digit silver,” Stöferle reaffirmed. “I think that is pretty much a certainty.”
For 2026, he expects silver’s structural tightness to become even more apparent, especially as both Chinese and Western investors move back into the market at the same time.
Mining Equities Enter a More Constructive Phase
Mining stocks, which struggled in previous years, are beginning to show signs of renewed strength. Stöferle said balance sheets are healthier, margins have improved, and dealmaking in 2024 and 2025 has been more disciplined. Hedge funds have already re-entered the sector, while generalist participation remains limited.
Stöferle noted that permitting conditions in the United States have also improved and that several Latin American assets are drawing long-term strategic interest from major buyers.
He added that 2026 could be the first year in more than a decade when mining equities consistently outperform the metals themselves, supported by stronger fundamentals and increasing investor interest.
A New 60/40 for a New Environment
Stöferle suggests that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is no longer reflective of the realities of an inflation-prone world. His revised framework allocates 15% to physical gold, 10% to performance-oriented gold such as silver and mining equities, 10% to commodities, and 5% to Bitcoin. He believes fixed income, a $170 trillion market, will become a major source of new flows into precious metals as investors search for reliable hedges.
He expects this rotation to accelerate in 2026 as more institutions rethink portfolio construction and seek assets that can withstand higher inflation volatility.
Risks and Turning Points in 2026
Stöferle anticipates at least one meaningful correction in precious metals next year, but believes the long-term trend of higher highs and higher lows will remain intact. The biggest risk he sees is declining public trust in institutions, which could lead to tighter rules around physical gold markets as governments confront rising debt burdens. He also cautioned that the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut rates as aggressively as markets expect if inflation begins to rise again.
He said inflation volatility, geopolitical competition between monetary blocs, and political pressure on monetary policy will be key forces shaping markets through 2026. Still, he believes the direction is clear. If the global monetary system continues to reorganize, he said, gold and silver will play increasingly central roles, and investors who recognize that shift early will be better positioned for what comes next.
Watch the full interview with Ronald-Peter Stöferle on Kitco News for his in-depth analysis of gold’s current phase, the drivers behind silver’s breakout, the evolution of portfolio construction, and how shifting monetary dynamics could shape markets in 2026.
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