(Kitco News) Bitcoin is entering a post-peak correction phase that could extend through the coming months, even as the broader macro backdrop continues to support hard assets, according to Michael Terpin.
Speaking with Kitco News in early April 2026, the founder and CEO of Transform Ventures said the current market reflects a repeatable cycle driven more by investor behavior than geopolitical shocks.
“That’s Bitcoin fall. That’s what we’re in right now,” he said.
Bitcoin traded in the mid-$60,000 range in early April, showing relative stability even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. The interview came as reports on April 2 indicated that Iran was drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Cycle dynamics signal correction phase
Terpin said the current phase typically follows the peak of a bull market and is marked by retail-driven selling pressure as newer participants exit positions after buying near cycle highs.
“Retail in particular panics,” he said.
He expects the cycle to resolve through a deeper correction before a bottom is established. “I think it’s going to go down between 40 and 55,” he said.
Terpin noted that prior cycles have followed a similar timeline, with a final capitulation phase still ahead. “The capitulation event that I believe is still coming in roughly October,” he said.
He added that this phase has historically created entry points as weaker hands exit the market and longer-term investors begin to reaccumulate.
Macro volatility takes a back seat to supply dynamics
Despite recent geopolitical developments, Terpin said Bitcoin’s price action continues to reflect internal market dynamics rather than external shocks, commenting, “macro is less important than the supply and demand and the fear and greed.”
He said the halving cycle remains the dominant structural driver, reducing new supply and amplifying the impact of demand over time.
“As long as the amount of net buying of Bitcoin in any four-year period between halvings is higher than the amount of new Bitcoin mined, the price has to go up,” he said. “It’s math.”
Terpin added that declining issuance and continued accumulation by long-term holders could tighten available supply into the next phase of the cycle.
Gold leads as capital rotates through the debasement trade
Terpin pointed to a recurring macro pattern in which gold responds first to currency debasement before Bitcoin captures flows later in the cycle. “Typically when there’s a debasement trade, gold gets the pump first, and then Bitcoin follows later,” he said.
Gold’s strong performance in 2025, supported by record demand and continued central bank buying, fits that pattern, while Bitcoin’s current consolidation suggests it remains in a later stage of that rotation.
Investor behavior diverges across market participants
Terpin argued that the structure of Bitcoin ownership has evolved, with retail and institutional participants behaving differently through the cycle. He pointed to exchange-traded funds as a channel for newer investors, noting that flows tend to follow price momentum rather than anticipate it.
“You’d see that there’s net outflows when the price is down and then inflows when the price is up,” he said. “That’s the exact opposite of how you should be behaving.”
At the same time, he said long-term holders, including corporate treasury buyers, are removing supply from the market.
“Michael Saylor is certainly on track to have a million Bitcoin,” he said.
Correction within a longer-term supply-constrained trend
Terpin said the current downturn should be viewed as part of a broader cycle that has historically produced higher highs following periods of correction, supported by tightening supply and expanding global participation.
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