(Kitco News) - According to industry consensus data, global mine gold production amounted to ~3,580 metric tonnes in 2021, which is ~3% higher than in 2020 (3,480 tonnes). China was the largest gold producing country, followed by Australia, Russia and the United States.
In its recent report, the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources of the Government of Australia (DISER) said that the global gold mine production is forecast to increase by 2.2% to 3,660 tonnes in 2022, driven by increased production in China, Australia, North America and West Africa.
Production in China, the world's largest gold producing country, is expected to rise in 2022 as most mines in Shandong province resumed production. Shandong's provincial government halted operations in 2021 for safety inspections to take place.
DISER added that in Australia, which is the world's second largest gold producing nation, a solid pipeline of projects is expected to bring the country's gold mine production to 308 tonnes in 2022.
Production in Canada and the US is forecast to increase by 19% and 9.8% to 225 and 201 tonnes in 2022, respectively. Production in the PNG is forecast to increase by 31% to 55 tonnes in 2022, driven by a restart at Porgera gold mine, which has been in care and maintenance since April 2020.
Australian gold production is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.5% during 2023 and 2024, DISER said. Production is projected to reach 331 tonnes in 2023, propelled by production from new mines and expansion of existing mines, and then increase further to 349 tonnes in 2024.
“Global gold mine production is forecast to rise until 2024, reaching 3,770 tonnes - before falling to 3,737 tonnes in 2027 - as new mines come on stream and mine expansions occur," the authors of the report noted.
New projects in Canada, Chile, Brazil and Argentina are likely to increase gold output in North America and Central and South America by 124 and 82 tonnes, respectively, by 2026.
However, DISER said that the expected decline in production after 2024 will be due to the closure of unprofitable gold mines in many parts of the world, adding that profitability will be squeezed by rising production costs and lower prices.
Importantly, DISER noted that a continuation of strict environmental regulations and industry consolidation will see gold production in China fall over the outlook period.
According to the report, the primary risk to the global gold production forecast is the extent to which supply chain issues and labor or skill shortages continue in the short term. Other downside risks to the forecasts of gold production are weaker than expected gold prices and rising production costs.
In this scenario, higher cost gold producers would be expected to cease or cut back their operations.
Global gold mine production, actual and forecast, tonnes. Sources: DISER, WGC.
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