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(Kitco News) - The gold market could continue to trend water around $1,950 an ounce through the rest of the summer as resilient economic growth supports growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish bias into the year-end, according to the latest outlook from Commerzbank.
While gold is expected to remain directionless through the fall, the German bank remains optimistic that gold prices can still push higher by the end of this year and into 2024. The long-term bullish outlook comes as gold prices remain under pressure, last trading at $1,970.50 an ounce, down 0.28% on the day.
In her latest gold report, Thu Lan Nguyen, head of commodity research, said that although recession expectations have been pushed to the first quarter of 2024, it is a given that growth will slow.
"While our economists recognize that the probability of a recession in the US has fallen significantly this year, given the scale and pace of the Fed's rate hikes - which amount to 525 basis points since March last year - they believe a recession is almost inevitable. In view of the recent robust growth, however, they no longer expect this to happen this year, but only in the first half of next year," Nguyen wrote. "…In autumn, it should be clear that the US Federal Reserve will not raise its key interest rate any further, which should pave the way for increased speculation about interest rate cuts in the coming year."
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see an 86.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged within a range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Markets also project a nearly 62% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged through year-end.
The German bank continues to see gold prices trading around $2,000 an ounce by year-end, with prices averaging around $2,050 in the first quarter of 2024.
"Our experts expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates around the middle of the year. In this environment, the gold price should succeed in overcoming its all-time high of USD 2,075 per troy ounce," Nguyen said.
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| Central banks become net gold buyers in June, ending three-month selling streak |
