Gold price mildly lower following downbeat China data

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Commodity markets, including the metals, have shuddered following surprisingly weak import and export data coming out of China overnight. December gold was last down $3.20 at $1,966.70 and September silver was down $0.127 at $23.10.

Risk appetite has receded following the news that China got some more dour economic data, as the world’s second-largest economy saw its exports drop a worse-than-expected 14.5% in July, year-on-year, the steepest decline since the Covid period in February of 2020. Imports in July fell more than expected, down 12.4%. These poor numbers will likely prompt more Chinese central bank stimulus measures soon.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading, on the China news. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Key U.S. and China inflation reports this week are also in focus for the marketplace. The July U.S. consumer price index it out Thursday and the producer price index is out Friday. Both the CPI and PPI are expected to uptick just a bit from the June reports.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $80.50 a barrel. These markets are in a bearish daily posture for the precious metals. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.998%, down a bit from Monday’s levels.  


Central banks become net gold buyers in June, ending three-month selling streak

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, international trade in goods and services, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and monthly wholesale trade.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,939.20. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,972.80 and then at this week’s high of $1,981.70. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,954.50 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing September futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $22.34. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.775 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at the July low of $22.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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