Gold sees price weakness ahead of busy U.S. data day

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
Published
Updated
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Gold sees price weakness ahead of busy U.S. data day teaser image

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, while silver is slightly up and hit a three-month high overnight. Metals traders were awaiting an important batch of U.S. economic reports due out Thursday morning. April gold was last down $7.10 at $2,173.60. May silver was last up $0.084 at $25.24.

It’s indeed a heavy U.S. economic report schedule today. After Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report for February that was warmer than expected, traders are now focused on Thursday’s February producer price index report. PPI in February is seen coming in at up 0.3%, month-on-month, following a 0.3% rise in the January report. More warm U.S. inflation readings in the coming weeks may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as soon as it had just recently anticipated.

Other U.S. economic reports out Thursday include retail sales, the weekly jobless claims report, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins.

Metals traders are taking note of the surge in copper prices this week, with nearby copper futures hitting an 11-month high. LME copper prices rose to $8,900 per metric ton, also the highest in almost a year. Bloomberg reported a $15 million trade in December copper futures calls options. Broker SP Angel today said reports suggested 19 smelters in China said they are exploring processing cuts.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.194%.

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Technically, the gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. A bullish pennant pattern has also formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at $2,250.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,100.00. First resistance is seen at $2,190.80 and then $2,200.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $2,161.30 and then at this week’s low of $2,156.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

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The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices hit a three-month high overnight. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing May futures prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $26.575. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $25.37 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll add your email address to my Front Burner list.)

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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