(Kitco News) – After building a firm base near $4,200, gold got its highly-anticipated boost from the Fed rate cut on Wednesday, and even a late pullback couldn’t prevent the yellow metal from delivering another strong weekly performance.
Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,198.68, and the $4,200 level continued to act like a magnet for price action while markets awaited direction from the Federal Reserve.
Monday morning saw gold dip down to retest support near $4,180, with $4,200 now acting as resistance. The Asian trading session saw the yellow metal set the weekly low near $4,174 per ounce just after 1:00 a.m. Eastern, but by 4:00 a.m. spot gold was trading back over $4,200, and by 11:00 a.m. on Tuesday gold had set a fresh weekly high of $4,220 per ounce.
With a narrow $30 price channel now established, gold traders went into near hibernation as markets awaited the central bank's verdict on the rate trajectory.
When the expected 25-basis-point rate cut arrived on Wednesday afternoon, it only drove gold to retest both sides of the price channel. But once Fed chair Powell finished his prepared remarks and began answering reporters’ questions about the U.S. economy, spot gold gained $50 in less than 30 minutes to trade above $4,235 per ounce. By 7:00 p.m., the yellow metal had set a new weekly high above $4,243 per ounce.
The Asian and European sessions saw gold once again go dormant, with prices retesting support near $4,215, but Thursday's North American open drove spot gold immediately back to the weekly high, and by 1:00 p.m. the yellow metal was trading near $4,285 per ounce. The early part of the Asian session then saw some profit-taking, but gold still held around the $4,270 area.
This set the stage for the final surge, which began just after 1:30 a.m. when gold broke through the weekly high of $4,285. Two hours later, the yellow metal was trading above $4,300, and 15 minutes after the North American open, spot gold set what proved to be the weekly high of $4,353.55 per ounce.
What followed was a sharp sell-off in silver, which dragged the other metals down with it, and by noon Eastern spot gold was trading all the way down at $4,273 per ounce. But after setting a double bottom, gold prices quickly rebounded to retake $4,300, and the market held at that level into the weekly close.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street all in on gold’s near-term prospects, while Main Street investors added modestly to their bullish majority bias.
“UP,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “The Federal Reserve’s resumption of large-scale Treasury buying — just don’t call it QE! — is bullish for gold.”
“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “Gold is breaking out from another bull pennant, and the only resistance left is the prior ATH, so there’s no reason to get bearish now. I think gold is situated well for continued gains into 2026, and I’m sticking bullish until there’s evidence that inflation might slow the Fed down.”
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, was looking at the relative strength of the precious metals after Friday morning’s pullback.
“Gold looks a lot stronger than silver,” he told Kitco News. “I think silver just got ahead of itself. We're probably just seeing some profit-taking and there's a lot of buyers that came in a little bit late and they're probably getting hit with margin and are getting stopped out right now.”
“The big line in the sand for silver is $48, and I think we will hold above there,” he added. “But we could see a washout, and then the market continues to move higher.”
Pavilonis said nothing has materially changed within the metals landscape that would weaken the rally. of why the metals would go up.
“The Fed is cutting rates, putting things on hold now, buying T-bills, trying to flush the T-bill market so the banks are recapitalized,” he said. “All that money, all that savings is going into T-bills. If rates are too high, they're going to put their money in T-bills because you can't get any yield at a bank. And if those yields go down, then that money's got to go somewhere. Some of that money's going to go into investments.”
“Inflation is still at the forefront of people's minds, so I think a lot of that money will go into commodities, and especially gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper,” Pavilonis added. “You have that, coupled with a large part of U.S. GDP and global GDP being moved by data centers. Those metals that are going to be used in the data centers, silver is one of them, copper… and gold is still the safe haven.”
“Structurally, on a chart, gold looked like it was coiling up and due to break out of that high, but I think silver took the market down with it,” he said. “But it also is probably seeing some pressure from the 10-year yield breaking above 4.2%. That's something to be concerned about.”
“It seems like risk-off across the board today,” he said. “Stocks are selling off, and I think that's just adding to the break in metals.”
In the near term, Pavilonis thinks metals traders may take a page from the crypto market’s ‘altcoin season’ playbook and rotate out of gold and into some of the more neglected metals.
“You could see something like that,” he said. “Silver has over 100% returns this year, and then you start to see some of these other metals that look pretty discounted compared to silver, like platinum, palladium, even. Gold is still the safe haven metal, but I think you could see some of that wealth being spread into other markets, as maybe silver has looked a little bit risky up here.
“If you're already long, stay long, but it's really hard to start buying it around $65, down to $60.”
This week, 13 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street experts overwhelmingly bullish, and even gold’s doubters predicting nothing worse than consolidation. 11 experts, or 85%, expect to see gold prices rise higher during the week ahead, while none predicted a price decline. The remaining two analysts, representing 15% of the total, expected the yellow metal to trade sideways next week.
Meanwhile, 237 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors’ bullish sentiment ticking up once again. 168 retail traders, or 71%, looked for gold prices to rise higher next week, while another 27, or 11%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 42 investors, representing 18% of the total, expected prices to consolidate during the week ahead.
Next week's economic news calendar will see another round of central bank rate decisions along with some long-delayed data on the U.S. economy.
On Monday, markets will receive the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Then Tuesday morning will bring the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls reports for both October and November, along with November Retail Sales, followed by U.S. Flash PMI for December.
Thursday, traders will watch for the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision, with the European Central Bank’s rate announcement coming shortly afterward. Markets will also receive US CPI for November, weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey.
The week wraps up with U.S. Existing Home Sales for November on Friday morning.
“Gold’s consolidation did prove to be constructive, and the gold basis spot reached nearly $4340 at the end of last week,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The Federal Reserve’s T-bill purchases may have encouraged the new buying more than the rate cut.” He also expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates and the Bank of England to cut next week.
“The heavier dollar may have also helped underpin the yellow metal,” Chandler added. “But the market has digested a great deal of news and a consolidative/corrective phase in the greenback coupled with firm US yields may see the yellow metal stall ahead of the recent high near $4380.”
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was looking back at the precious metals rally over the course of 2025, and particularly over recent weeks.
“Even with the economy on pretty strong footing, it doesn't matter,” he said. “This is just an asset class now. It'll run its course eventually, we’ll see some pullbacks and retracement, but outside of something else entering in the market, or unless we see a major pullback in stocks, a significant correction. I see them staying up here.”
“Once we hit 40%, even 50% in both markets, I'm like, ‘This is it.’ And I was way wrong,” he said. “Usually, a 40% move up in anything over a short amount of time is, pretty good return. It just doesn't [stop], it just kept chugging.”
Lusk said gold is very much the flavor in the market these days. “Everyone wants it, central banks, pensions, investment funds are parking money in here and have parked money the last couple of years,” he said. “And it's just not going away. We'll see periods of profit taking, but nothing shattering technically that's going to turn you back down here.”
He said he’s watching key levels in the February futures contract for a potential break. “You’ve got a ledge here around $4,197 - 4,207, around the 4,200 level,” he said. “If we get below that, technically we can float all the way back down to $3,925 on the moving average.”
“We're seeing a little trepidation up here to make all-time highs, but maybe it's just a matter of time before that happens.”
“It's hard to predict here, but under $4,200, that's what I'm watching for,” Lusk said. “If we got a couple of closes under there, then I could see it getting back down to $4,000. If not about $3,925 to $3,930.”
That said, Lusk expects the market to bounce back from Friday’s dip and move higher once again. “Until I see something different that comes in the market, the path of least resistance is still higher.”
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to post further gains next week, but he believes the bull market is nearing its end.
“Gold began the week modestly, but prices gained momentum on Thursday and Friday, resulting in a rise of over 3.5% for the week to $4,340 per ounce,” he said. “This is only 0.8% below historical highs. Precious metals are experiencing a real frenzy at the end of the year, rather than the expected cooling off for profit-taking. Silver (+120%) and platinum (+90%) are performing even better than gold in the outgoing year. This substantial growth further confirms the strength and seriousness of the rally.”
“The BIS notes that for the first time in 50 years, both gold and US stock indices are moving in tandem as risky assets,” Kuptsikevich noted. “Their growth is speculative and shows signs of a bubble. The crowd continues to buy stocks and precious metals, while the smart money seeks opportunities to sell or remain neutral.”
He said that next week will likely start with a short squeeze in gold and other metals, but he’ll be keeping a close eye on what happens afterward. “We continue to see gold as overheated and approaching the end of its bull market,” Kuptsikevich said. “The peak may be followed by several years of decline.”
Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, believes gold will continue to trend higher next week.
“In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183. warned of renewed strength,” he wrote. “We have seen $3,214.3. This is OFF HOLD. On a Medium time frame: The break above 31482 warned of strength for days—we rallied $1,249.8. The trade above 32214 projects this upward $100 (+)—we rallied $1,176.6. The trade above 32236 warned of renewed strength—we rallied $1,174.4. The trade above 32392 projected this up 115 (+)—we attained $1,158.8. The trade above 33411 has brought in $1,056.9 of strength. The trade above 33850 has brought in $1,013.0 of strength. The trade above 34186 has brought in $979.4 of strength. The break back above 35640 has brought in $834.0 of strength. The trade above 36658 has brought in $732.2 of strength. The trade above 37143 has brought in $683.7 of strength. The break above 37725 has brought in $625.5 of strength. The trade back above 38828 brought in $515.2 of strength. These are OFF HOLD.”
“On a Lower time frame: The trade above 39732 has brought in $379.1 of strength,” Moor said. “The trade back above 40701 has brought in $382.2. The trade above 41738 has brought in $178.5. On 11/5 we also left a medium bullish reversal. The trade above 42758 (-1 tic per/hour) has brought in $76.5 of the strength warned about, although I refrained from suggesting leaning against this as a long; but if we fail back below decently, look for decent pressure.”
And Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said both gold and silver were seeing solid technical buying on Friday morning, and are benefiting from a surprisingly dovish lean from the Federal Reserve and a slumping U.S. dollar index.
“Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00,” he said. “Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at $4,400.00 and then at $4,433.00. First support is seen at $4,300.00 and then at the overnight low of $4,295.50.”
At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,299.38 per ounce for a gain of 2.40% on the week and 0.47% on the day.
