(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Monday, ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data that includes the latest monthly jobs report. February gold was last down $16.00 at $4,319.00. March silver prices were down $0.379 at $63.18.
Big U.S. economic data dump today. A combined October-November U.S. jobs report today is shaping up to be the main U.S. data event for markets in the last full trading week of 2025. A print that reinforces the picture of a sluggish U.S. economy could put the stock market rally back on track by supporting bets for further Fed interest rate cuts, while a big miss to the upside on non-farm payrolls may spook markets. Today’s jobs report will also include an estimate of October payrolls — figures that were delayed by the U.S. government shutdown. Analysts project a 45,000 increase in November payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate. Also out today is the November new residential construction report, retail sales for October, the December flash U.S. services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes, and September manufacturing and trade inventories. The U.S. consumer price index report for November is scheduled for Thursday.
Ukraine says U.S. would codify its security if peace deal reached. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he has an agreement with the U.S. to make security guarantees legally binding through a vote in Congress as part of a deal to end Russia’s war, Bloomberg reported. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said he’s “very much confident” the war is nearing an end but insisted Moscow’s territorial demands remain unchanged. European leaders pledged to send a multinational force to Ukraine to help rebuild its military and protect its airspace and seas after a peace deal has been agreed and offered “a legally binding commitment” to take measures to restore Ukraine’s security. Zelenskiy offered no details in online audio comments to Ukrainian media late Monday. The disclosure came hours after a U.S. official said the Trump administration had offered strong “Article 5-like” security guarantees to Ukraine in the latest negotiations, a reference to NATO’s mutual-defense clause. Attention is now likely to switch to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response, after two days of talks in Berlin involving Ukrainian, U.S. and European officials ended with upbeat assessments of the potential for a settlement.
Crude oil prices slump amid Ukraine-Russia peace talks progress. Nymex crude oil futures fell to a near-eight-month low today and Brent crude oil futures fell 1% to below $60 per barrel, the lowest since early 2021, amid renewed optimism over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and persistent concerns about oversupply. Any deal could pave the way for the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, potentially flooding the market with more barrels. The market is widely expected to be oversupplied this year and next as OPEC+ producers restored idled output, while non-OPEC producers, particularly in the Americas, also boost production. Adding to the bearish sentiment, weak Chinese economic data out on Monday raised concerns about slowing energy demand from the world’s largest crude importer. These factors offset worries over potential supply disruptions stemming from rising U.S.-Venezuela tensions.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index down a bit. Crude oil prices are lower, hit a nearly eight-month low, and are trading around $56.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.16%.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,345.30 and then at last week’s high of $4,387.80. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,297.40 and then at $4,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
March silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $67.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $57.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $64.26 and then at the record high of $65.085. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $61.605 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.
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