(Kitco News) Extreme volatility in gold and silver does not signal a breakdown in the precious metals bull market, but rather reflects a structural shift in how prices are adjusting after years of suppressed demand and underinvestment, according to John Feneck, Founder and CEO of The Feneck Commodities Report.
Speaking with Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep, Feneck said sharp pullbacks following record highs should be expected in the current environment. “We’re in a bull market,” he said. “This is a bull market for gold and silver and commodities in general.”
Gold and silver both retreated sharply after reaching new highs in late January, with silver experiencing particularly violent intraday moves. Feneck said the scale of the rally made a correction inevitable after silver finally broke through long-standing resistance. “Silver at $30 was 11 years' worth of resistance,” he said, adding, “so anything over $100 is a gift if you’ve been along like me for many, many years.”
Rather than viewing volatility as a warning sign, Feneck said it is now a defining characteristic of the cycle. “Nothing goes up in a straight line,” he said. “Volatility is here to stay in 2026 and beyond.”
Investor behavior and equity complacency
Feneck believes the current environment is exposing a growing disconnect between market behavior and investor expectations, particularly after years of relatively smooth equity returns. He argued that many investors are not prepared for the size and speed of daily moves now appearing across commodities and equities, making risk tolerance and entry discipline increasingly important.
He also questioned how much of the strong performance in broad equity portfolios over the past decade reflects skill versus favorable market conditions, warning that complacency could unwind quickly if broader markets begin to roll over. “When this thing turns over, meaning the broad market, it’s going to get real ugly real fast,” Feneck said, adding that volatility is unlikely to ease as investors reassess risk across asset classes.
Fed uncertainty and purchasing power
The pullback in metals comes amid renewed uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy following President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Walsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Feneck said the development highlights broader concerns around currency stability rather than any single rate decision.
Feneck criticized the Federal Reserve for avoiding discussion of the U.S. dollar’s decline. “It’s eroding U.S. purchasing power and Americans deserve to know what’s happening with the dollar decline,” he said. “Yet these guys barely even talk about it.”
He argued that erosion in confidence toward fiat currencies remains a core driver of precious metals demand, even as prices experience sharp short-term corrections.
Support levels and market expectations
While remaining constructive on the medium to long-term outlook, Feneck cautioned that gold and silver, “haven’t set the floors yet,” pointing to the size and speed of recent moves.
On silver, he identified potential downside risk before stabilization, noting that “$50 is that big round number in the sand for silver, maybe $55.” His own expectations are higher, believing that “$66 to $70 is sort of the floor for silver.”
For gold, Feneck pointed to forecasts from major financial institutions that continue to call for higher prices. “Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, B of A, they’re all at $5,400 to $6,000 gold, guys,” he said.
Mining stocks lag, and capital rotates
Despite record metal prices, Feneck believes mining equities have yet to fully reflect the move, and the disconnect remains one of the most frustrating aspects of the current market. “You don’t buy equities in anything that is related to a commodity to be up one third of the commodity,” he said. “It doesn’t make any sense.”
He said analyst models continue to underestimate earnings potential at current price levels, though upcoming full-year results could force revisions. Still, Feneck argued that broader equity market weakness may ultimately be the catalyst that drives capital rotation into mining stocks.
Deals and funding signal a turning point
Recent mining transactions and a surge in large financings point to a turning point for the sector after several years of capital scarcity, according to Feneck. He noted that many companies are now raising amounts that would have been unattainable during the downturn. “Some of these companies couldn’t raise a quarter of that 12 to 18 months ago,” he said.
He added that renewed interest from private equity and hedge funds is allowing companies to advance development plans, diversify jurisdictional exposure, and move projects closer to future construction decisions.
Structural forces remain intact
Feneck said political developments in jurisdictions such as Chile and Peru, along with ongoing debates around permitting, will continue to shape future supply. While progress will vary by region, he believes the broader structural forces supporting precious metals remain firmly in place.
“This is not going to change,” Feneck said. “This is a new paradigm, and people need to understand that.”
Watch the full interview on Kitco Mining’s YouTube channel for Feneck’s detailed discussion on metal volatility, Federal Reserve policy, mining equities, and capital flows shaping the precious metals market in 2026.