(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, as a firmer U.S. dollar and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions offset support from lower Treasury yields. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,391.50 an ounce, down 1.46%, while spot silver was trading near $73.045, down 2.15% on the session.
The U.S. macro calendar is heavy after Wednesday’s quiet data slate. Traders are watching April personal income and spending, the PCE price indexes, durable goods orders and the second estimate of first-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by April new home sales at 10 a.m. ET. The inflation read is the key metals input: consensus was looking for headline PCE to rise 0.5% on the month and 3.9% from a year earlier, with core PCE at 3.3%, leaving the Federal Reserve with little room to validate near-term easing.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into energy, inflation expectations and precious metals. Oil rebounded after new U.S. strikes on Iranian drone assets near the strait and a ground-control station in Bandar Abbas, while Iran’s retaliation claims and fresh U.S. sanctions on Tehran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority kept the ceasefire framework under pressure.
The current impact on gold is mixed but negative on balance in early trading: renewed conflict risk supports defensive demand, but the stronger dollar and oil-led inflation impulse keep rate risk alive and pressure non-yielding metals. Across other markets, the clearest transmission is higher crude, softer global equities, a firmer dollar, lower Treasury yields and renewed volatility in shipping and energy-sensitive sectors.
Global equities were mostly lower before the U.S. open. Germany’s DAX was nearly unchanged, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4% and Britain’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.9%. S&P 500 and Dow futures edged 0.1% lower. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi each lost 0.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.4% and Taiwan’s Taiex lost 1.4%. Wednesday’s U.S. cash session still left the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq at record closes after crude fell more than 4%, but Thursday’s oil rebound has cut into that relief trade.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $90.95 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $96.74. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,420 to $4,450 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,460 and then $4,500. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,367, with deeper downside targets at $4,341 and then $4,319. First resistance is seen at $4,420 and then at $4,450. First support is seen at $4,367 and then at $4,341.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $74.00 to $74.97 area, with a move above that zone targeting $75.05 and then $78.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $73.00, with deeper downside targets at $72.78 and then $71.79. First resistance is seen at $74.00 and then at $74.97. Next support is seen at $73.00 and then at $72.78.
