(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as post-Fed rate risk, a firmer dollar backdrop and reduced energy-supply fear outweighed residual geopolitical demand. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,116.80 an ounce, down 1.78%, while spot silver was trading at $61.865, down 4.96% on the session.
The latest post-Fed positioning remains a headwind for precious metals. The Federal Reserve held the funds-rate target at 3.50% to 3.75% last week, but the June projections put the 2026 median funds-rate forecast at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, while nine officials penciled in at least one 2026 rate hike. That shift keeps the market focused on real yields, the dollar and incoming inflation data rather than on pre-committed Fed guidance, leaving gold exposed when risk markets do not need a hedge.
Ship traffic has picked up in the Strait of Hormuz since the interim deal, with 71 confirmed crossings between Friday and Sunday, but that remains below the prewar pace of roughly 100 to 130 vessels a day, and the central route remains mined. Iran agreed to toll-free commercial passage for 60 days, while U.S. and Iranian officials are still disputing control, tolls and future administration of the waterway. The current market impact is disinflationary at the margin: crude is lower, U.S. futures are weaker on caution rather than panic, and gold’s haven bid is fading because the market sees shipping risk as manageable unless negotiations break down.
U.S. equity futures pointed lower before the open as an eight-day risk rally cooled and investors weighed the path toward a final U.S.-Iran agreement. Dow futures were down 0.7% at 51,774.00, while S&P 500 futures fell 1.5% to 7,429.25. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 3.6%, South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 10.0% and European bourses were lower in early trade. “Now it has cooled off a bit,” Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said Tuesday.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $73.58 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $77.47. The U.S. dollar is mixed against major currencies. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note remains in the mid-4% area, with no approved live intraday level included.
The next macro test for metals is the May PCE inflation report later this week. In the current setup, a sticky core reading would reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer signal and keep pressure on gold and silver, while a softer print would test whether lower oil can translate into lower real-rate expectations.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,200 to $4,226 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,330 and then the $4,597 descending-channel high. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,119, with deeper downside targets at $4,073 and then $4,000. First resistance is seen at $4,200 and then at $4,226. First support is seen at $4,119 and then at $4,073.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $66.00 to $66.57 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-hour moving average near $68.32 and then $69.84. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $61.54, with deeper downside targets at $60.00 and then $58.00. First resistance is seen at $66.00 and then at $66.57. Next support is seen at $61.54 and then at $60.00.
