(Kitco NewWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are under heavy pressure in early U.S. trading Wednesday, as a stronger U.S. dollar, renewed Fed-rate repricing and easing oil-supply fears continue to weigh against haven demand. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $3,978.80 an ounce, down 3.19%, while spot silver was trading at $58.150, down 5.39% on the session.
The latest market reaction since the June 17 Federal Reserve meeting has shifted from “higher for longer” to outright hike-risk positioning. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but June projections put the median year-end 2026 policy rate at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, while median 2026 PCE inflation rose to 3.6% from 2.7%. Gold has fallen more than 4% since the meeting, with the dollar pressing a 52-week high near 101.71 and traders cutting exposure to non-yielding assets ahead of Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. ET PCE, GDP, jobless claims, durable goods and personal income releases.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s geopolitical pressure point, but the current price impact has shifted. The waterway has been characterized by an interim U.S.-Iran framework to halt the conflict and reopen shipping, followed by conflicting signals over control, navigation rights and tanker flows. Oil has sold off as more tankers pass through the strait and safety conditions improve, with WTI near $71.10 a barrel and Brent near $76.57. That has reduced the immediate inflation shock premium in crude, but it has not restored a bid to gold, which is trading more as a rate and dollar asset than a geopolitical hedge this morning.
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, framed the overnight gold action as a breakdown below $4,100 followed by a fast move to $4,050 and a failed recovery back through $4,100. The key takeaway is that $4,100 has flipped into resistance, while $4,020 to $4,030 remains the last nearby support shelf before the $4,000 psychological level. Morrison warned that a break below $4,000 could trigger a deeper stop-driven selloff, though he also noted that such a move could push daily MACD toward oversold territory.
In silver, Morrison said the overnight break below $61.00 left the metal at its lowest level since early December, with the dollar’s rally adding pressure. He identified first meaningful support near $58.50, previously resistance in early December, followed by a larger support zone near $54.00, which marked resistance in October and November. His near-term read is that silver’s path of least resistance remains lower until buyers reappear.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $71.10 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $76.57. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and holding near a 52-week high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.3% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,100.00 to $4,180.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,221.00 and then $4,350.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,000.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,997.98 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,050.00 and then at $4,100.00. First support is seen at $4,020.00 to $4,030.00 and then at $4,000.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.00 to $62.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $65.00 and then $66.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.50, with deeper downside targets at $56.00 to $57.00 and then $54.00. First resistance is seen at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Next support is seen at $58.50 and then at $56.00 to $57.00.
