(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are sharply lower ahead of the North American market open Monday, as renewed U.S.-Iran escalation around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher, lifted Treasury yields and revived concerns that energy-driven inflation could keep the Federal Reserve tighter for longer. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,055.40 an ounce, down 1.55%, while spot silver was trading near $58.36, down 2.35% on the session.
Positioning after last Thursday’s June employment report and Wednesday’s Fed minutes remains less supportive for gold than it appeared immediately after the jobs release. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000, initially reducing confidence in additional Fed tightening. The minutes then pushed inflation risk back into focus, and Monday’s oil spike hardened that shift. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading near 4.582% at 7:17 a.m. ET, while the 2-year yield moved above 4.20% and markets were pricing a roughly 68% chance of a September rate hike. That leaves gold with labor-market support underneath, but a stronger inflation-yield channel limiting fresh long additions.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under active military contest, not a stable shipping environment and not a fully verified closure. The U.S. and Iran are each asserting control of the waterway after weekend attacks, with Washington saying it will protect freedom of navigation and Tehran claiming the right to manage traffic and potentially charge vessels. Visible tanker traffic has fallen sharply, and oil prices jumped after Iran said the strait was closed and U.S. forces launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets. For gold, the direct geopolitical bid is being offset by the macro channel: higher oil lifts inflation risk, keeps yields firm and supports the dollar. For broader markets, the trade is oil bid, bonds under pressure, equities softer and precious metals offered.
Traders are watching this week’s CPI release, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and any further disruption to Hormuz shipping lanes. A softer CPI print would reduce the pressure from real yields and give gold a cleaner path to recover the $4,091 to $4,107 resistance area, while another oil spike would keep the market focused on inflation risk and the Fed’s reaction function.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $72.90 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $79.60. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.58% area.
Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period EMA near $4,107 and continue to test the symmetrical triangle breakout area. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,091, with a sustained move targeting $4,107 and then $4,140. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,000, with deeper downside targets at $3,959 and then $3,942. First resistance is seen at $4,091 and then at $4,107. First support is seen at $4,000 and then at $3,959.
Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below $61.71 resistance and the 50-period moving average near $62.81. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.36, with a move above that level targeting $61.71 and then $62.81. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.00, with deeper downside targets at $57.00 and then $55.60. First resistance is seen at $59.36 and then at $61.71. Next support is seen at $58.00 and then at $57.00.
