(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Tuesday, as a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, helping metals recover even as crude oil stayed bid on renewed U.S.-Iran tension. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,052.80 an ounce, up 1.32%, while spot silver was trading near $58.65, up 1.95% on the session.
Gold’s session range was $3,985.00 to $4,101.50, leaving the metal back above the $4,000 area but below the $4,091 to $4,140 resistance zone identified in the latest technical setup. Silver’s session range was $56.76 to $59.80, with the metal recovering from Monday’s selloff but still capped below the $59.61 to $61.71 resistance band.
North American equities closed higher after the CPI print eased rate-hike pressure. The S&P 500 rose 28.25 points, or 0.4%, to 7,543.59, the Nasdaq Composite gained 233.83 points, or 0.9%, to 26,107.01, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 9.63 points, or less than 0.1%, to 52,508.27 and the Russell 2000 added 11.60 points, or 0.4%, to 2,964.76. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 77.07 points, or 0.22%, to 35,329.79.
European equities also finished higher after reversing earlier losses tied to oil and Middle East risk. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.09 points, or 0.17%, to 642.10, Germany’s DAX gained 32.78 points, or 0.13%, to 25,147.03, France’s CAC 40 edged up 2.20 points, or 0.03%, to 8,366.85 and London’s FTSE 100 rose 31.10 points, or 0.30%, to 10,529.39.
Positioning after this morning’s CPI report shifted back in favor of precious metals and rate-sensitive equities. Headline CPI fell 0.4% in June, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, while the annual rate slowed to 3.5%. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% year over year. Traders reduced the probability of a July rate hike to about 15.5%, with the probability of no change at roughly 84.5%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point hike by year-end fell below 42%. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.583% late in the session, down about 3.7 basis points, while DXY was near 100.95, down 0.28%. The result was a cleaner macro backdrop for gold than Monday’s oil-led inflation scare, though yields remain historically elevated.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under elevated military and shipping risk, not a normal operating environment and not a confirmed full chokepoint closure. The U.S. has maintained pressure on Iranian shipping and military infrastructure after renewed attacks on commercial vessels, while President Donald Trump stepped back from a proposal to impose a 20% transit fee on vessels crossing the strait. The pullback helped cap crude’s upside, but the conflict continues to keep an energy-risk premium in place.
For gold, the immediate impact is two-sided: geopolitical risk supports defensive demand, while any sustained oil spike would revive inflation fears, lift yields and limit bullion’s upside. For broader markets, the Tuesday trade was softer yields, weaker dollar, higher equities, higher metals and crude oil still sensitive to any fresh Hormuz headlines.
Traders are watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s follow-up testimony to the Senate tomorrow, any further repricing in July and September Fed-rate expectations and the next move in Hormuz shipping risk. A sustained move lower in yields would give gold a cleaner path to test the $4,091 to $4,140 resistance zone, while another crude-oil spike would bring the inflation-rate channel back into focus.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around the $80.00 area, while Brent crude was near the $86.00 area. The U.S. dollar index is lower and trading near 100.95. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.58% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,091, with a sustained move targeting the 50-period moving average near $4,087 and then $4,140. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959, with deeper downside targets at $3,942 and then $3,886. First resistance is seen at $4,091 and then at $4,140. First support is seen at $4,021 and then at $3,959.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the 50-period moving average near $59.61, with a move above that level targeting $61.71 and then $62.81. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.73, with deeper downside targets at the $56.00 to $58.00 accumulation zone and then $55.60. First resistance is seen at $59.61 and then at $61.71. Next support is seen at $57.73 and then at $55.60.
