(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are modestly higher and spot silver prices are weaker ahead of the North American market open Wednesday, as a softer U.S. inflation mix supported precious metals while renewed Strait of Hormuz tension kept crude oil prices and Treasury yields elevated. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,061.70 an ounce, up 0.25%, while spot silver was trading near $58.14, down 0.74% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $4,016.60 to $4,066.90, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area but still below the $4,090 to $4,140 resistance zone identified in the latest technical setup. Silver’s early range was $57.68 to $59.20, with the metal holding above the $57.15 support area but failing to sustain a move back above $59.00.
Positioning after the latest CPI and PPI reports has shifted back toward a less hawkish Fed path, but the move is being restrained by oil and yield pressure. Headline CPI fell 0.4% in June and slowed to 3.5% year over year, while core CPI was unchanged on the month and eased to 2.6% year over year. This morning’s PPI report added to that disinflationary signal, with final demand prices down 0.3% in June, goods prices down 1.4% and services prices up 0.2%. The annual PPI rate slowed to 5.5%, while core wholesale inflation rose 0.2% on the month and 4.7% from a year earlier. The data reduced the urgency around a July Fed hike, but the 10-year Treasury yield was still near 4.60% and DXY was steady near 100.97 as traders weighed softer inflation against renewed energy-price risk.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open but highly stressed transit under active military and shipping risk, not a normal operating environment. The U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade on Iran and intensified strikes after Iranian attacks on vessels using the strait, while Iran has threatened to halt regional energy exports if pressure escalates. Brent crude traded near $85.78 and WTI near $80.19, keeping the energy-inflation channel alive even after the softer CPI and PPI prints.
For gold, the result is a two-sided trade: geopolitical risk supports defensive demand, but higher oil and firmer yields limit the upside. For broader markets, the current setup is oil bid, bonds under pressure, dollar steady and silver underperforming gold.
Traders are watching follow-through in Fed-rate expectations after the PPI print, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony and any further disruption to Hormuz shipping lanes. A sustained move lower in yields would give gold a cleaner path to test $4,090 and $4,140, while another crude-oil spike would keep the market focused on whether energy inflation offsets the softer June CPI and PPI readings.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $80.19 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $85.78. The U.S. dollar index is steady near 100.97. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.60% area.
Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 100-period moving average near $4,077 and continue to trade inside the broader descending pattern. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,090, with a sustained move targeting $4,140 and then $4,200. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,000, with deeper downside targets at $3,962 and then $3,950. First resistance is seen at $4,077 and then at $4,090. First support is seen at $4,040 and then at $4,000.
Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $58.81 and the 100-period moving average near $59.36. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.36, with a move above that level targeting $60.41 and then $64.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.15, with deeper downside targets at $55.00 and then $50.00. First resistance is seen at $58.81 and then at $59.36. Next support is seen at $57.15 and then at $55.00.
