Gold down but well up from daily low as USDX fades

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
Published
Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are lower near midday Wednesday but have posted a significant rebound from the early-session low. Silver prices are modestly up after also seeing solid losses in early dealings. The U.S. dollar index has lost most of its earlier good daily gains, which has given the metals market bulls some confidence to step in to buy today’s price dips. However, rising U.S. Treasury and European bond yields, as well as lower crude oil prices, are keeping the precious metals depressed today. June gold was last down $14.20 at $2,005.30 and May silver was up $0.117 at $25.38.

Some hawkish Fed-speak Tuesday has dampened trader and investor spirits at mid-week, including metals traders. Non-voting members of the FOMC argued in favor of higher U.S. interest rates for longer. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Rapahel Bostic told CNBC he would like to see one more rate hike and then hold rates above 5% for a period of time to cool down inflation. Meantime, Fed Bank of St Louis President James Bullard told Reuters recession fears are overblown and that he supports U.S. rates to rise into a 5.5-5.75% range--up from the current 4.75-5.0%. The banking turmoil of a few weeks ago settled down due in part to notions the Federal Reserve may be less hawkish due to the banking worries and the risk of a U.S. recession. The hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials may once again raise the specter of more banking problems that may come with higher interest rates. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline: “Few lenders hedged against risk of Fed rate increases.”


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Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker as midday approaches.

In overnight news, Euro zone consumer price inflation in March rose 6.9%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.627%.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, June gold futures bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the April high of $2,063.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,965.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,020.30 and then at this week’s high of $2,028.00. First support is seen at $1,993.00 and then at today’s low of $1,980.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

May silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $25.71 and then at $26.00. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at today’s low of $24.715. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 215 points at 407.00 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.90 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of 392.60 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 413.30 cents and then at the April high of 419.55 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 402.25 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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