Gold price rallies after surprising downside miss on U.S. NFP

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Friday, following a surprisingly weaker-than-expected rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls in this morning’s June employment situation report from the Labor Department. August gold was last up $16.60 at $1,931.30 and September silver was up $0.27 at $23.14.

Arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month saw the U.S. employment situation report for June’s key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 209,000, which compares to a consensus forecast of up 240,000, and follows a gain of 339,000 jobs in the May report. Thursday’s June U.S. ADP national employment report showed a rise of 497,000 jobs, which was double market expectations for a gain of 220,000. The ADP report had many thinking the Labor Department’s jobs report Friday morning would also be much stronger than expected in jobs growth. Not so.

This week’s ADP jobs report, hawkish Fed speak and FOMC minutes had moved the needle well into the reading of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at this month’s FOMC meeting. Today’s non-farm payrolls reading from the Labor Department dials that needle back a bit, toward those market watchers wanting the Fed to stand pat in July.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield moved above 4.0% this week, which is the highest since March. The 10-year yield is presently fetching 4.00%.  

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.


Investors have more to lose without gold in their portfolio - WGC

In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in China for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. Yellen reportedly criticized China for its treatment of U.S. companies. Her visit comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $72.00 a barrel.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Technically, the gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,938.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,942.90. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,915.40 and then at this week’s low of $1,908.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing September futures prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $24.835. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $22.34. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.535 and then at $23.75. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $22.72 and then at last week’s low of $22.485. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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