Anticipation of the approval of the first spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to push the price of the top cryptocurrency higher as BTC hit $45,925 on Coinbase in the early hours on Tuesday, its first time above $45,000 since early April 2022.
With the deadline for the ARK 21Shares spot BTC ETF approaching on January 10, analysts and members of the crypto community are all but certain that multiple applications will be approved on or before that date, leading many to front-run the expected price surge that will follow.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart tweeted out the following list of the 11 applications currently of interest, and said he is “Still looking for potential approval orders in that Jan 8 to Jan 10 window.”
Here's a view of the Cointucky Derby starting gate as of this morning. We're focused on these 11 spot #Bitcoin ETF filers. Expecting most of these N/A's to be filled over the next ~week.
Still looking for potential approval orders in that Jan 8 to Jan 10 window. pic.twitter.com/HYdnPuiaRx— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 2, 2024
On-chain data shows that the net flows from all cryptocurrency exchanges have turned negative, indicating that investors are withdrawing their coins from exchanges to hold them for the long term.
According to Glassnode, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges is now at 2.37 million, the lowest level since June 2018.
Bitcoin balance on exchanges. Source: Glassnode
While many are expecting a major sell-off in the price of Bitcoin once an ETF is approved, several analysts have suggested that the declining supply of BTC available on exchanges will limit the downside as most traders are still betting on its price to climb higher in 2024, especially with the next halving set to take place in late April.
Data provided by Coinglass shows that those who moved early to bet on a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ pullback in Bitcoin were hit hard by its spike above $45,000 on Tuesday, with $128 million in short positions liquidated, the largest liquidation since early December when Bitcoin broke out above $40,000.
BTC total liquidation chart. Source: Coinglass
And with the broader crypto ecosystem expecting the imminent approval of the first spot BTC ETF, MN Trading Michaël van de Poppe said he is “still expecting continuation towards $48-51K” before Bitcoin hits a firm level of resistance.
The year starts of with a new rally of #Bitcoin towards the highs.
I'm still expecting continuation towards $48-51K and find a potential resistance there.
ETF to be approved this week?! pic.twitter.com/OdoNevoqve— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 2, 2024
