(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, with gold hitting a three-week high, in the wake of an important U.S. inflation report that came in just a bit cooler than expected. Recent U.S. inflation data had come in warmer than expected. Today’s personal income and spending report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sooner rather than later. Such a scenario can be extrapolated to mean better demand for precious metals and it’s also a bit bearish for the U.S. dollar. April gold was last up $13.00 at $2,056.00. March silver was last up $0.275 at $22.70.
The U.S. data point of the week saw Thursday morning’s personal income and outlays report for January, which includes the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation indexes, show the personal income component up a stronger-than-expected 1.0% in January, compared to expectations for a rise of only 0.3%. Personal spending was up 0.2% in January, as expected. However, the inflation numbers were a bit less than expected. The PCE price index was up 0.3% month-on-month and up 2.4%, year-on-year. The core PCE price index was up 0.4% in January and up 2.8%, year-on-year. The PCE price index in January was expected to be up 2.6%, year-on-year, while the core PCE price index was expected to be up 2.9% in the same period.
Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins and rallied after the personal income report.
Bitcoin prices have soared this week and are presently trading around $63,500. Barron’s this week reported bitcoin’s rise is due to better risk appetite in the marketplace, the big rally in the technology heavy Nasdaq stock index, and notions the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates later this year.
Broker SP Angel said this morning in an email dispatch that China has signaled more fiscal pump-priming for its economy. The Chinese politburo has vowed to make the policy environment “transparent and predictable” in reaction to weak business and consumer confidence. Chinese leadership is signaling it intends to double down on more fiscal instruments to support the economy. “President Xi is pushing ‘disruptive innovation’ and technology self-reliance which, we suspect, is best led by a number of tech entrepreneurs than state-led companies, particularly when it comes to semiconductors and AI,” said the broker.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $78.75 a barrel.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.305%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
Technically, the gold futures bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has now been negated. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at the February high of $2,083.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at $2,061.00 and then at $2,075.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,036.00 and then at $2,025.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing March futures prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $23.56. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $21.975. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at $23.25. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $22.245 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
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